Match Info

J1 League - Round 10

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Nissan Stadium (Yokohama)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Yokohama F. Marinos		Tokyo

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.6	1.79	Watch
	3.1	3.4	2.2
	4.15	3.45	1.8	Watch
	4.5	3.69	1.85
	4.35	3.64	1.82	Watch
	4.2	3.3	1.8
	4.18	3.52	1.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.08 ↑ (3.09)	3.51 ↓ (3.52)	1.87 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Yokohama F. Marinos
23%

Draw
26.7%

Tokyo
50.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

26.8%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

26.7%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yokohama F. Marinos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Yokohama F. Marinos's form might have worsened.

Tokyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tokyo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yokohama F. Marinos than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Yokohama F. Marinos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tokyo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	30%	40%

Yokohama F. Marinos - Tokyo Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Yokohama FM will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Tokyo will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tokyo: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tokyo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Park Il-gyu (G) 34. Kimura T. 13. Inoue T. 33. Suwama K. 2. Kato R. 28. Yamane R. 6. Watanabe K. 11. Croux J. (C) 40. Amano J. 30. Yuri Araujo 9. Tanimura K.	81. Kim Seung-Gyu (G) 2. Muroya S. (C) 24. Scholz A. 17. Inamura H. 42. Hashimoto K. 16. Sato K. 18. Hashimoto K. 27. Tokiwa K. 22. Endo K. 23. Sato R. 9. Marcelo Ryan
Substitutes
46. Asada H. 26. David D. 29. Higuchi A. 21. Iikura H. (G) 8. Kida T. 24. Kondo T. 49. Murakami K. 35. Sekitomi K. 19. Tevis	6. Bangnagande K. 37. Koizumi K. 8. Ko T. 39. Nakagawa T. 28. Nozawa L. 15. Omori R. 55. Otani D. C. 1. Tanaka H. (G) 71. Yamada F.
Coaches
Oshima H.	Matsuhashi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Sato K. ⚽, Marcelo Ryan (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Kimura T. ↓, Sekitomi K. ↑,
49', Muroya S. 🟨,
64', 0 - 2, Marcelo Ryan ⚽, Muroya S. (A),
69', Yuri Araujo ↓, Kondo T. ↑,
69', Tanimura K. ↓, Asada H. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Kato R. ⚽, Yamane R. (A),
75', Watanabe K. ↓, Kida T. ↑,
76', Muroya S. ↓, Koizumi K. ↑,
76', Sato R. ↓, Nakagawa T. ↑,
78', 1 - 3, Asada H. (Own goal),
82', Koizumi K. 🟨,
85', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Otani D. C. ↑,
85', Endo K. ↓, Nozawa L. ↑,
87', Croux J. ↓, Tevis ↑,
90', Sato K. ↓, Yamada F. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Yokohama FM won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Yokohama FM may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

Tokyo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Yokohama FM: Quinones J. (Red Card) Suzuki T. (Knee Injury) Tono D. (Injury)

There will not play in Tokyo: Arai Y. (Knee Injury) Morishige M. (Muscle Injury) Nagakura M. (Injury) Nagatomo Y. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Yokohama FM: Kimura R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Tokyo: Endo K. (Injury) Marcelo Ryan (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Yokohama FM won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 41:33. (average 2.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Yokohama FM won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:12. (average 1.9:1.2).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

FC Tokyo: 11.22% Yokohama F. Marinos: 3.02%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8:7	1	7
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	4	2	0	2	7:7	0	6

Last Results with these Odds

Yokohama F. Marinos - the odds 3.09 are the expected chance of winning is 30.58%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yokohama F. Marinos
Japan J1 League
05.04.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Yokohama F. Marinos	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Yokohama F. Marinos	0:5 ✺
18.03.26	Mito HollyHock - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - JEF United Chiba	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Tokyo - Yokohama F. Marinos	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWLWL
- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
05.04.26	Tokyo - Machida Zelvia	0:1 penalties ✺
01.04.26	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo	0:3 ✺
22.03.26	Tokyo Verdy - Tokyo	1:0 penalties ✺
18.03.26	JEF United Chiba - Tokyo	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Mito HollyHock - Tokyo	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
07.03.26	Tokyo - Yokohama F. Marinos	3:0
28.09.25	Tokyo - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:3
25.06.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Tokyo	0:3
28.09.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Tokyo	1:3
19.05.24	Tokyo - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:1
19.08.23	Yokohama F. Marinos - Tokyo	2:1
03.06.23	Tokyo - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:3

Upcoming Matches