Match Info

J1 League - Round 17

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium (Kawasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
China	QQ Sports
Hong-kong	myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	PSJ TV
Japan	DAZN Japan
Vietnam	HTV Thể Thao, K+, TV 360


	Kawasaki Frontale		Cerezo Osaka

	1	X	2
	1.67	4.1	4.5	Watch
	1.73	3.9	4.1
	1.79	3.75	3.9	Watch
	2	3.85	3.76
	1.87	3.86	3.91	Watch
	1.91	3.5	3.5
	1.83	3.91	4.08	Watch
	1.81	3.8	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.79)	3.83 ↑ (3.82)	3.96 ↓ (4.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kawasaki Frontale
51.6%

Draw
24.6%

Cerezo Osaka
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

24.8%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

24.4%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kawasaki Frontale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kawasaki Frontale than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	10%	20%

Kawasaki Frontale - Cerezo Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Kawasaki will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kawasaki: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kawasaki (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Thebault-Yamaguchi L. (G) 31. van Wermeskerken S. 2. Takai K. 35. Maruyama Y. 5. Sasaki A. 19. Kawahara S. 6. Yamamoto Y. 41. Ienaga A. 14. Wakizaka Y. 23. Marcinho 20. Yamada S.	1. Fukui K. (G) 3. Shindo R. 44. Hatanaka S. 33. Nishio R. 16. Okuda H. 5. Kida H. 8. Kagawa S. 22. Takahashi N. 7. Uejo S. 77. Fernandes L. 9. Rafael Ratao
Substitutes
9. Erison 44. Haydar C. 17. Ito T. 1. Jung Sung-Ryong (G) 38. Kanda S. 16. Ozeki Y. 18. Segawa Y. 8. Tachibanada K. 15. Tanabe S.	14. Funaki K. 29. Furuyama K. 21. Kim Jin-Hyeon (G) 38. Kitano S. 13. Nakajima M. 6. Noborizato K. 17. Sakata R. 48. Shibayama M. 11. Thiago Andrade
Coaches
Hasebe S.	Papastamatis A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Sasaki A. 🟨,
57', Kida H. ↓, Nakajima M. ↑,
57', Uejo S. ↓, Kitano S. ↑,
60', Ienaga A. ↓, Ito T. ↑,
61', Marcinho ↓, Ozeki Y. ↑,
66', Yamada S. ↓, Erison ↑,
80', Wakizaka Y. ↓, Segawa Y. ↑,
80', Kawahara S. ↓, Tachibanada K. ↑,
84', Rafael Ratao ↓, Thiago Andrade ↑,
84', Okuda H. ↓, Sakata R. ↑,
85', 1 - 0, Erison ⚽, Segawa Y. (A),
87', Nishio R. ↓, Shibayama M. ↑,
88', 2 - 0, Erison ⚽, Maruyama Y. (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kawasaki won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Kawasaki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Kawasaki is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y. (Knee Injury) Homma S. (Injury) Tanaka S. (Injury) Vitor Bueno (Inactive)

There are questionable in Kawasaki: Jesiel (Hamstring Injury) Kobayashi Y. (Injury) Kurumaya S. (Muscle Injury) Lee G. (Knee Injury) Miura S. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kawasaki won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 32:35. (average 1.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Kawasaki won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:18. (average 2.1:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kawasaki Frontale
Japan J1 League
14.05.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Yokohama FC	2:1 ✺
11.05.25	Kashima Antlers - Kawasaki Frontale	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
03.05.25	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0 ✺
30.04.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Kawasaki Frontale	2:3 ✺
27.04.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Al-Sadd	3:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WLLWW
- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
11.05.25	Cerezo Osaka - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:0 ✺
06.05.25	Vissel Kobe - Cerezo Osaka	1:3 ✺
03.05.25	Kyoto Sanga - Cerezo Osaka	2:3 ✺
29.04.25	Cerezo Osaka - Machida Zelvia	1:2 ✺
25.04.25	Tokyo Verdy - Cerezo Osaka	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
14.07.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Cerezo Osaka	1:1
13.04.24	Cerezo Osaka - Kawasaki Frontale	1:0
02.09.23	Cerezo Osaka - Kawasaki Frontale	3:0
18.03.23	Kawasaki Frontale - Cerezo Osaka	0:0
Japan J League Cup
10.08.22	Kawasaki Frontale - Cerezo Osaka	2:2
03.08.22	Cerezo Osaka - Kawasaki Frontale	1:1
Japan J1 League
02.07.22	Cerezo Osaka - Kawasaki Frontale	2:1

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