Match Info

J1 League - Round 33

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Sanga Stadium by Kyocera (Kameoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV


	Kyoto Sanga		Kawasaki Frontale

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.75	2.57	Watch
	2.6	3.6	2.45
	2.52	3.55	2.45
	2.49	3.8	2.76
	2.76	3.21	2.57	Watch
	2.64	3.58	2.57	Watch
	2.55	3.6	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (2.69)	3.58 ↓ (3.63)	2.55 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kyoto Sanga
36.8%

Draw
26.3%

Kawasaki Frontale
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

26.3%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

26.6%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kyoto Sanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Kawasaki Frontale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kawasaki Frontale than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	23.1%	53.8%

Kyoto Sanga - Kawasaki Frontale Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Kyoto will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Kawasaki will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kawasaki: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Kawasaki (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Kyoto (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Kyoto (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Kawasaki (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Ota G. (G) 2. Fukuda S. 24. Miyamoto Y. 50. Suzuki Y. (C) 22. Sugai H. 10. Fukuoka S. 48. Nakano R. 39. Hirato T. 29. Okugawa M. 14. Hara T. 18. Matsuda T.	1. Jung Sung-Ryong (G) 31. van Wermeskerken S. 22. Uremovic F. 5. Sasaki A. 13. Miura S. 8. Tachibanada K. 19. Kawahara S. 17. Ito T. 14. Wakizaka Y. (C) 23. Marcinho 9. Erison
Substitutes
5. Appiah Tawiah H. 88. Gustavo Barreto 21. Kakoi K. (G) 25. Leo Gomes 93. Nagasawa S. 32. Saito M. 44. Sato K. 16. Takeda S. 27. Yamada F.	21. Ando S. (G) 41. Ienaga A. 27. Kamihashi R. 11. Kobayashi Y. 24. Miyagi T. 29. Myogan T. 91. Romanic L. 15. Tanabe S. 39. Tsuchiya K.
Coaches
Jo Gwi-Jae	Hasebe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Ito T. ⚽, Erison (A),
11', Fukuoka S. ↓, Takeda S. ↑,
38', 1 - 1, Sugai H. ⚽, Matsuda T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Okugawa M. ↓, Yamada F. ↑,
58', Hirato T. 🟨,
59', Yamada F. 🟨,
65', Nakano R. ↓, Leo Gomes ↑,
65', Matsuda T. ↓, Nagasawa S. ↑,
74', Marcinho ↓, Ienaga A. ↑,
75', Erison ↓, Romanic L. ↑,
76', Nagasawa S. 🟨,
77', Tachibanada K. 🟨,
84', Romanic L. 🟨,
85', Hirato T. ↓, Gustavo Barreto ↑,
85', Ito T. ↓, Miyagi T. ↑,
88', Romanic L. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 2.

Kyoto has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kawasaki is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Kyoto: Joao Pedro (Yellow Cards) Yonemoto T. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Kawasaki: Jesiel (Inactive) Kurumaya S. (Calf Injury) Lee G. (Knee Injury) Maruyama Y. (Knee Injury) Oshima R. (Calf Injury) Yamamoto Y. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Kyoto: Rafael Elias (Injury)

There are questionable in Kawasaki: Erison (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Kyoto won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Kawasaki Frontale - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 38.3%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kyoto Sanga
Japan J1 League
28.09.25	Cerezo Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 ✺
23.09.25	Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Kyoto Sanga - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:1 ✺
12.09.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WTLTW
- Kawasaki Frontale
Japan J1 League
28.09.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashiwa Reysol	4:4 ✺
23.09.25	Shonan Bellmare - Kawasaki Frontale	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Kawasaki Frontale	0:3 ✺
Japan J League Cup
07.09.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Urawa Red Diamonds	3:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
01.03.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Kyoto Sanga	0:1
09.11.24	Kyoto Sanga - Kawasaki Frontale	1:1
09.03.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Kyoto Sanga	0:1
12.11.23	Kawasaki Frontale - Kyoto Sanga	3:3
03.05.23	Kyoto Sanga - Kawasaki Frontale	0:1
12.10.22	Kawasaki Frontale - Kyoto Sanga	3:1
29.05.22	Kyoto Sanga - Kawasaki Frontale	1:0

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