What is the expert prediction for Lanús vs Mirassol?

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Lanús vs Mirassol Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Tuesday, May 26, 2026)

Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 26 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez (Lanús)

Referee: Benitez C. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Ukraine	Maincast Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Lanús		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.2	4.5	Watch
	1.78	3.4	4.6
	1.92	3.05	4.45	Watch
	1.91	3.12	5.11
	1.85	3.14	5.17	Watch
	1.91	2.9	4.4	Watch
	1.93	3.13	4.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.1)	3.13 ↓ (3.25)	4.73 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lanús
50%

Draw
30.1%

Mirassol
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

28.8%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

28.3%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lanús's performance.

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mirassol might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lanús that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mirassol could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.2%	13%	21.7%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Lanús will win (votes: 15 - 71.4%). Mirassol will win (votes: 4 - 19%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lanús: 52.1% – 90.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lanús (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Losada N. (G) 4. Perez G. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Marcich S. 17. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 11. Salvio E. 23. Carrera R. 25. Aquino D. 9. Bou W.	23. Alex Muralha (G) 34. Joao Victor (C) 2. Lucas Oliveira 3. Willian Machado 21. Jose Aldo 16. Igor Carius 33. Eduardo 10. Chico Kim 6. Reinaldo 17. Everton Galdino 27. Galeano A.
Substitutes
38. Acosta B. 77. Besozzi L. 20. Cabrera B. 35. De Jesus R. 37. De Martis T. 33. Guidara T. 3. Morgantini N. 5. Pena Biafore F. 1. Petroli F. (G) 27. Sanchez F. 16. Sepulveda M. 8. Watson F. N.	77. Alesson 99. Andre Luis 96. Carlos Eduardo 20. Daniel Borges 1. Georgemy (G) 26. Lucas Mugni 7. Shaylon 90. Thomazella (G) 5. Yuri Lara
Coaches
Pellegrino M.	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Medina A. ⚽, Bou W. (A),
34', Cardozo A. 🟨,
45+3', Perez G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Galeano A. ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
63', Jose Aldo ↓, Alesson ↑,
63', Reinaldo ↓, Daniel Borges ↑,
76', Lucas Oliveira ↓, Lucas Mugni ↑,
76', Everton Galdino ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
80', Aquino D. ↓, Besozzi L. ↑,
81', Bou W. ↓, Cabrera B. ↑,
83', Willian Machado 🟨,
85', Salvio E. ↓, Sepulveda M. ↑,
86', Medina A. ↓, Pena Biafore F. ↑,
90+2', Carrera R. ↓, Watson F. N. ↑,

Preview

Mirassol is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Lanús is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mirassol is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lanús may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lanús is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Lanús: Loaiza R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mirassol: Igor Formiga (Muscle Injury) Negueba (Knee Injury) Victor Luis (Red Card)

There are questionable in Lanús: Valois Y. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lanús won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

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Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Mirassol: 3.46%

Last Results with these Odds

Lanús - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44.52%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Mirassol - the odds 3.5 are the expected chance of winning is 26.71%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lanús
Copa Libertadores
20.05.26	LDU Quito - Lanús	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.05.26	Argentinos Juniors - Lanús	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.05.26	Always Ready - Lanús	4:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.26	Lanús - Deportivo Riestra	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Lanús - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLTW
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
23.05.26	Mirassol - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.05.26	Always Ready - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Mirassol - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
08.04.26	Mirassol - Lanús	1:0

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