Match Info

CHINA: FA Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 June 2024, Friday

Location: Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium (Rizhao)


	Lanzhou Longyuan		Henan Songshan Longmen

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5.75	4.2	1.41
	6.5	4.5	1.45
	7.26	4.42	1.37
	7.26	4.42	1.37
	4.5	4.2	1.53
	7.37	4.7	1.37	Watch
	6.2	4.4	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.41 ↑ (4.06)	4.41 ↑ (3.9)	1.42 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lanzhou Longyuan
14.3%

Draw
20.8%

Henan Songshan Longmen
64.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.2%

23.1%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

19%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanzhou Longyuan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lanzhou Longyuan's form might have worsened.

Henan Songshan Longmen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Henan Songshan Longmen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lanzhou Longyuan than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lanzhou Longyuan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Henan Songshan Longmen than the current prediction. (-19.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Henan Songshan Longmen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	14.3%	85.7%

Lanzhou Longyuan - Henan Songshan Longmen Predictions

Users Predictions: Henan Songshan Longmen will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
66', 0 - 1, Huang Zichang ⚽,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lanzhou Longyuan
Chinese Yi League
15.06.24	Shandong Taishan B - Lanzhou Longyuan	3:2 ✺
08.06.24	Lanzhou Longyuan - Beijing Institute of Technology	0:0 ✺
02.06.24	Lanzhou Longyuan - Nantong Haimen Codion	0:2 ✺
26.05.24	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue - Lanzhou Longyuan	3:0 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
17.05.24	Lanzhou Longyuan - Ningbo Professional	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LTLLW
- Henan Songshan Longmen
Chinese Super League
15.06.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Beijing Guoan	2:1 ✺
26.05.24	Changchun Yatai - Henan Songshan Longmen	0:0 ✺
21.05.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Shanghai Shenhua	1:2 ✺
17.05.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Wuhan Three Towns	2:3 ✺
10.05.24	Chengdu Rongcheng - Henan Songshan Longmen	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WTLLL

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