Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Océane (Le Havre)

Referee: Kherradji A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+ 4, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+


	Le Havre		Lorient

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.8	Watch
	2.08	3.35	3.7
	2.13	3.35	3.87
	2.07	3.34	3.56	Watch
	2.05	3.49	3.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.45)	3.39 ↑ (3.37)	3.77 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Havre
46.3%

Draw
28.3%

Lorient
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

28.2%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

28.7%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Havre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Le Havre's performance.

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorient might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Le Havre that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorient could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.3%	16.1%	22.6%

Le Havre - Lorient Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Le Havre will win (votes: 19 - 65.5%). Lorient will win (votes: 6 - 20.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 13.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Havre: 48.2% – 82.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Havre (votes: 5 - 50%). Lorient (votes: 2 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Le Havre (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Havre (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Lorient (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Diaw M. (G) 7. Nego L. 93. Sangante A. (C) 4. Lloris G. 23. Delaine T. 15. Seko A. 94. Toure A. 13. Doucoure F. 8. Kechta Y. 45. Soumare I. 70. Samatta A.	38. Mvogo Y. (G) 5. Meite B. 3. Talbi M. 25. Faye A. 11. Le Bris T. 62. Avom A. 6. Abergel L. (C) 43. Kouassi A. 15. Tosin A. 29. Karim D. 9. Bamba M.
Substitutes
26. Ebonog S. 30. Khadra R. 10. Mambimbi F. 77. Mpasi-Nzau L. (G) 21. Namli Y. 14. Ndiaye R. 9. Pizarro D. . Vinette E. K. 6. Youte Kinkoue E.	8. Cadiou N. 12. Dieng B. 2. Igor Silva 21. Kamara B. (G) 17. Makengo J. 19. Monnier I. 93. Mvuka Mugisha J. 10. Pagis P. 28. Soumano S.
Coaches
Digard D.	Pantaloni O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', Meite B. 🟨,
4', Toure A. (Pen),
15', Sangante A. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Tosin A. ⚽, Karim D. (A),
25', Seko A. 🟨,
41', Abergel L. 🟨,
45+2', Samatta A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 1 - 1, Soumare I. ⚽, Lloris G. (A),
50', Talbi M. 🟨,
52', Avom A. 🟨,
55', Bamba M. 🟨,
62', Bamba M. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
62', Tosin A. ↓, Makengo J. ↑,
63', Kechta Y. ↓, Ndiaye R. ↑,
63', Doucoure F. ↓, Namli Y. ↑,
74', Le Bris T. ↓, Mvuka Mugisha J. ↑,
77', Samatta A. ↓, Pizarro D. ↑,
85', Toure A. ↓, Mambimbi F. ↑,
85', Delaine T. ↓, Vinette E. K. ↑,
90+2', Faye A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Le Havre won 1.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Lorient may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Le Havre might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Lorient: Adjei N. (Ankle Injury) Katseris P. (Thigh Injury) Sanusi T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Toure I. (Knee Injury) Yongwa D. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Le Havre: Zouaoui Y. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Le Havre won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Le Havre won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
14.09.25	Strasbourg - Le Havre	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Le Havre - Nice	3:1 ✺
24.08.25	Le Havre - Lens	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Monaco - Le Havre	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Le Havre	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWLLL
- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
12.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	4:0 ✺
30.08.25	Lorient - Lille	1:7 ✺
24.08.25	Lorient - Rennes	4:0 ✺
17.08.25	Auxerre - Lorient	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Angers - Lorient	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
28.01.24	Lorient - Le Havre	3:3
03.09.23	Le Havre - Lorient	3:0
Club Friendly
29.07.23	Le Havre - Lorient	0:2
French Ligue 2
19.10.19	Le Havre - Lorient	2:2
17.05.19	Le Havre - Lorient	2:3
28.07.18	Lorient - Le Havre	0:0
05.03.18	Lorient - Le Havre	1:0

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