What is the expert prediction for Le Havre vs Metz?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Le Havre vs Metz. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Le Havre vs Metz Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, April 26, 2026)

Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 31

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Océane (Le Havre)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Caze TV
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Mexico	FOX One, Tubi TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Le Havre		Metz

	1	X	2
	1.6	4.33	5	Watch
	1.68	3.75	5.25
	1.6	4.1	5.35
	1.65	4.35	5.5
	1.57	4.3	5.41	Watch
	1.57	4	5
	1.64	4.44	5.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.89)	4.18 ↑ (3.59)	5.23 ↑ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Havre
59%

Draw
22.8%

Metz
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

26.4%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

22.9%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Havre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Le Havre's performance.

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Metz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (-15.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Le Havre that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Metz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.9%	28.6%	3.6%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Le Havre will win (votes: 19 - 67.9%). Metz will win (votes: 1 - 3.6%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Havre: 50.6% – 85.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Metz (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Metz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Diaw M. (G) 7. Nego L. 15. Seko A. 4. Lloris G. 18. Zouaoui Y. 14. Ndiaye R. 26. Ebonog S. 13. Doucoure F. 8. Kechta Y. 45. Soumare I. (C) 25. Samatta A.	61. Sy P. (G) 38. Sane S. 15. Yegbe T. 4. Mboula U. 70. Sarr B. (C) 20. Deminguet J. 5. Gbamin J. 12. Toure A. 7. Tsitaishvili G. 10. Hein G. 11. Kvilitaia G.
Substitutes
17. Boufal S. 19. Gourna-Douath L. 11. Kyeremeh G. 10. Mambimbi F. 78. Mosengo D. N. 77. Mpasi-Nzau L. (G) 20. Obougou N. 32. Pembele T. 6. Youte Kinkoue E.	9. Abuashvili G. 3. Diop M. 1. Fischer J. (G) 39. Kouao K. 34. Mbala N. 19. Michal L. 35. Pandore J. 21. Stambouli B.
Coaches
Digard D.	Tavenot B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
5', 1 - 0, Samatta A. ⚽,
9', 1 - 1, Kvilitaia G. ⚽, Hein G. (A),
13', 2 - 1, Kechta Y. ⚽,
18', Gbamin J. ↓, Mbala N. ↑,
45+5', 2 - 2, Hein G. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Toure A. ↓, Stambouli B. ↑,
46', Ndiaye R. ↓, Gourna-Douath L. ↑,
46', Mboula U. ↓, Pandore J. ↑,
47', Kvilitaia G. 🟨,
52', 3 - 2, Zouaoui Y. (Penalty Awarded),
54', 3 - 3, Pandore J. ⚽, Mbala N. (A),
61', 4 - 3, Doucoure F. ⚽, Soumare I. (A),
69', Doucoure F. ↓, Kyeremeh G. ↑,
79', Zouaoui Y. ↓, Pembele T. ↑,
79', Kechta Y. ↓, Boufal S. ↑,
80', Gourna-Douath L. 🟨,
83', Deminguet J. ↓, Abuashvili G. ↑,
83', Kvilitaia G. ↓, Michal L. ↑,
85', 4 - 4, Hein G. ⚽, Mbala N. (A),
90+2', Ebonog S. 🟨,
90+4', Ebonog S. ↓, Mosengo D. N. ↑,
90+6', Pembele T. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Metz is Relegated to Ligue 2

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Le Havre won 1.

Recent performances by Le Havre have been up and down (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Metz's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Le Havre may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Le Havre is the team to beat.

There will not play in Le Havre: Sangante A. (Red Card) Toure A. (Knee Injury) Zagadou S. (Injury)

There will not play in Metz: Ba O. (Injury) Ballo-Toure F. (Injury) Colin M. (Injury) Diallo H. (Injury) Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Munongo B. (Knee Injury) Traore B. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Le Havre: Ndiaye R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Metz: Mbala N. (Inactive) Melieres C. (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Le Havre won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Le Havre won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Le Havre	31	6	13	12	29:42	-13	31
18	Metz	31	3	7	21	31:70	-39	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
18.04.26	Angers - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Nice - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Le Havre - Auxerre	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Paris FC - Le Havre	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	Le Havre - Lyon	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TTTLT
- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
19.04.26	Metz - Paris FC	1:3 ✺
10.04.26	Olympique Marseille - Metz	3:1 ✺
05.04.26	Metz - Nantes	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Rennes - Metz	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Metz - Toulouse	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
28.09.25	Metz - Le Havre	0:0
21.04.24	Le Havre - Metz	0:1
29.10.23	Metz - Le Havre	0:0
French Ligue 2
13.03.23	Metz - Le Havre	1:1
24.10.22	Le Havre - Metz	2:0
04.03.19	Le Havre - Metz	2:2
29.09.18	Metz - Le Havre	0:1

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