Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 17

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk)

Referee: Piszczelok M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Lechia Gdańsk		Termalica Nieciecza

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.9	4.75	Watch
	1.62	4.05	4.55
	1.67	4.21	4.82
	1.86	3.79	3.88	Watch
	1.64	4	4.71	Watch
	1.62	4.2	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.85)	4.03 ↑ (3.21)	4.58 ↑ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lechia Gdańsk
56.2%

Draw
23.3%

Termalica Nieciecza
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.3%

27.9%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

27.3%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lechia Gdańsk's performance.

Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lechia Gdańsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lechia Gdańsk - Termalica Nieciecza Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Lechia Gdańsk will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weirauch S. (G) 33. Wojtowicz T. 15. Dyachuk M. 80. Rodin M. 27. Vojtko M. 11. Mena C. 10. Kapic R. (C) 99. Neugebauer T. 5. Zhelizko I. 79. Sezonienko K. 89. Bobcek T.	1. Chovan A. (G) 29. Isik G. 5. Masoero L. 3. Kasperkiewicz A. 21. Hilbrycht D. 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 8. Kurzawa R. 6. Wolski M. 23. Guerrero S. 9. Jimenez J. 7. Fassbender M.
Substitutes
72. Awad M. 8. Cirkovic A. 21. Glogowski M. 23. Kalahur M. 2. Kludka B. 90. Kurminowski D. 3. Olsson E. 18. Paulsen A. (G) 4. Pllana B. 88. Szczepankiewicz B. 17. Tsarenko A. 7. Viunnyk B.	17. Biniek D. 27. Boboc R. 35. Deisadze D. 26. Jakubik W. 2. Kopacz B. 16. Kozik M. 99. Mleczko M. (G) 77. Putivtsev A. 86. Strzalek I.
Coaches
Carver J.	Brosz M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
15', Isik G. 🟨,
16', 1 - 0, Bobcek T. (Pen),
32', 1 - 1, Jimenez J. ⚽,
39', 2 - 1, Kapic R. ⚽, Mena C. (A),
40', Kasperkiewicz A. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
54', 3 - 1, Bobcek T. ⚽, Mena C. (A),
58', Guerrero S. ↓, Strzalek I. ↑,
58', Fassbender M. ↓, Jakubik W. ↑,
59', Masoero L. ↓, Putivtsev A. ↑,
61', 4 - 1, Rodin M. ⚽, Zhelizko I. (A),
65', 5 - 1, Dyachuk M. ⚽, Rodin M. (A),
73', Zhelizko I. 🟨,
74', Bobcek T. ↓, Cirkovic A. ↑,
74', Sezonienko K. ↓, Kurminowski D. ↑,
75', Mena C. ↓, Awad M. ↑,
80', Kapic R. ↓, Viunnyk B. ↑,
80', Kurzawa R. ↓, Biniek D. ↑,
87', Neugebauer T. ↓, Tsarenko A. ↑,
89', Jimenez J. ↓, Deisadze D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Termalica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lechia is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Lechia: Jaunzems A. (Muscle Injury) Paulsen A. (Inactive) Sarnavskyi B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Termalica: Kubica K. (Yellow Cards) Zapolnik K. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Lechia won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.11.25	Legia Warsaw - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2 ✺
08.11.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Widzew Łódź	2:1 ✺
03.11.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Radomiak Radom	1:2 ✺
Polish Cup
29.10.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Lechia Gdańsk	1:3 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Raków Częstochowa - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWLWL
- Termalica Nieciecza
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.11.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Arka Gdynia	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2 ✺
31.10.25	Termalica Nieciecza - GKS Katowice	0:3 ✺
24.10.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Zagłębie Lubin	1:1 ✺
20.10.25	Wisła Płock - Termalica Nieciecza	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
14.04.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Termalica Nieciecza	3:1
01.10.23	Termalica Nieciecza - Lechia Gdańsk	0:0
Polish Ekstraklasa
09.04.22	Lechia Gdańsk - Termalica Nieciecza	2:0
16.10.21	Termalica Nieciecza - Lechia Gdańsk	0:2
Polish Cup
05.12.18	Termalica Nieciecza - Lechia Gdańsk	1:3
Polish Ekstraklasa
04.05.18	Lechia Gdańsk - Termalica Nieciecza	0:1
27.02.18	Lechia Gdańsk - Termalica Nieciecza	2:2

Upcoming Matches