Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 11

Date: 22 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee: Backhouse A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Leeds United		Watford

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	10
	1.34	5.25	8.5
	1.32	5.4	9.25	Watch
	1.34	5.49	9.38
	1.34	5.28	8.86	Watch
	1.3	5.5	11
	1.33	5.35	8.8	Watch
	1.32	5.4	9.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.41)	5.33 ↑ (4.74)	9.38 ↑ (7.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
71.9%

Draw
17.9%

Watford
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.3%

20%

12.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.9%

19.3%

12.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88%	0%	12%

Leeds United - Watford Predictions

Users Predictions: Leeds United will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.85% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Meslier I. (G) 2. Bogle J. 6. Rodon J. 5. Struijk P. 3. Firpo J. 22. Tanaka A. 8. Rothwell J. 29. Gnonto W. 11. Aaronson B. 17. Ramazani L. 10. Piroe J.	1. Bachmann D. (G) 6. Pollock M. 3. Sierralta F. 22. Morris J. 36. Ebosele F. 34. Baah K. 17. Sissoko M. (C) 39. Kayembe E. 37. Larouci Y. 7. Ince T. 8. Chakvetadze G.
Substitutes
9. Bamford P. 25. Byram S. 50. Crew C. 26. Darlow K. (G) 37. Debayo J. 7. James D. 19. Joseph M. 33. Schmidt I. 14. Solomon M.	45. Andrews R. 19. Bayo V. 23. Bond J. (G) 20. Doumbia M. 14. Dwomoh P. 5. Porteous R. 12. Sema K. 15. Tikvic A. 11. Vata R.
Coaches
Farke D.	Cleverley T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Ramazani L. ⚽, Firpo J. (A),
7', 2 - 0, Aaronson B. ⚽,
14', Ramazani L. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
35', Ebosele F. 🟨,
38', Tanaka A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 2 - 1, Baah K. ⚽,
59', Firpo J. 🟨,
62', Sierralta F. ↓, Porteous R. ↑,
72', Ebosele F. ↓, Sema K. ↑,
72', Larouci Y. ↓, Andrews R. ↑,
72', Gnonto W. ↓, James D. ↑,
72', Piroe J. ↓, Joseph M. ↑,
87', Sissoko M. ↓, Doumbia M. ↑,
87', Baah K. ↓, Vata R. ↑,
90+6', Solomon M. ↓, Byram S. ↑,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leeds won 3.

Leeds is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Watford is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Leeds could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Leeds is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Leeds: Ampadu E. (Knee Injury) Gruev I. (Knee Injury) Wober M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Watford: Bachmann D. (Hip Injury) Keben K. (Knee Injury) Ngakia J. (Hip Injury) Sierralta F. (Muscle Injury)

Our prediction for today's Leeds to win the game is with odds 1.33.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Leeds won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 18:25 (average 1.5:2.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Leeds won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:14 (average 1.7:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English League Championship
18.10.24	Leeds United - Sheffield United	2:0 ✺
04.10.24	Sunderland - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
01.10.24	Norwich City - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
28.09.24	Leeds United - Coventry City	3:0 ✺
21.09.24	Cardiff City - Leeds United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTTWW
- Watford FC
English League Championship
19.10.24	Luton Town - Watford	3:0 ✺
05.10.24	Watford - Middlesbrough	2:1 ✺
02.10.24	Preston North End - Watford	3:0 ✺
28.09.24	Watford - Sunderland	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
24.09.24	Manchester City - Watford	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
29.03.24	Watford - Leeds United	2:2
23.09.23	Leeds United - Watford	3:0
English Premier League
09.04.22	Watford - Leeds United	0:3
02.10.21	Leeds United - Watford	1:0
English FA Cup
20.02.16	Watford - Leeds United	1:0
English League Championship
28.02.15	Leeds United - Watford	2:3
23.08.14	Watford - Leeds United	4:1

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