Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 10

Date: 19 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Martin S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Hornets Hive, Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Luton Town		Watford

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.8	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.5
	2.03	3.56	3.56	Watch
	2.04	3.6	3.79
	2.02	3.58	3.64	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3.6
	2.02	3.72	3.48	Watch
	2.03	3.56	3.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.02)	3.57 ↓ (3.63)	3.62 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
47%

Draw
26.7%

Watford
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

26.2%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

26.8%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Luton Town have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.6%	15.8%	31.6%

Luton Town - Watford Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 10 - 52.6%). Watford will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Kaminski T. (G) 16. Burke R. 6. McGuinness M. 29. Holmes T. 7. Moses V. 18. Clark J. 8. Krauss T. 45. Doughty A. 14. Chong T. 9. Morris C. (C) 11. Adebayo E.	1. Bachmann D. (G) 6. Pollock M. 21. Ogbonna A. 5. Porteous R. 45. Andrews R. 39. Kayembe E. 17. Sissoko M. (C) 24. Dele-Bashiru T. 12. Sema K. 8. Chakvetadze G. 19. Bayo V.
Substitutes
19. Brown J. 27. Hashioka D. 38. Johnson J. 23. Krul T. (G) 17. Mpanzu P. 13. Nakamba M. 37. Nelson Z. 25. Taylor J. 10. Woodrow C.	34. Baah K. 23. Bond J. (G) 36. Ebosele F. 7. Ince T. 18. Jebbison D. 37. Larouci Y. 22. Morris J. 3. Sierralta F. 11. Vata R.
Coaches
Edwards R.	Cleverley T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Bayo V. 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Clark J. ⚽, Holmes T. (A),
16', Clark J. 🟨,
35', Doughty A. 🟨,
37', Porteous R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Holmes T. ↓, Hashioka D. ↑,
47', 2 - 0, Morris C. ⚽, Doughty A. (A),
52', Bayo V. ↓, Jebbison D. ↑,
53', Kayembe E. ↓, Baah K. ↑,
53', Burke R. ↓, Johnson J. ↑,
58', Chong T. ↓, Nakamba M. ↑,
61', Hashioka D. 🟨,
65', Sema K. ↓, Ebosele F. ↑,
66', Krauss T. ↓, Mpanzu P. ↑,
67', Morris C. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
82', Andrews R. ↓, Ince T. ↑,
82', Dele-Bashiru T. ↓, Vata R. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 0, Brown J. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 21 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Luton will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Luton: Andersen M. (Leg Injury) Baptiste S. (Muscle Injury) Chong T. (Muscle Injury) Hashioka D. (Leg Injury) McGuinness M. (Ankle Injury) Morris C. (Leg Injury) Walsh L. (Red Card)

There will not play in Watford: Bachmann D. (Hip Injury) Keben K. (Knee Injury) Ngakia J. (Hip Injury) Sierralta F. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Luton: Mengi T. (Knee Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Luton won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:5 (average 0.8:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Luton won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0 (average 1.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League Championship
05.10.24	Sheffield United - Luton Town	2:0 ✺
01.10.24	Luton Town - Oxford United	2:2 ✺
27.09.24	Plymouth Argyle - Luton Town	3:1 ✺
21.09.24	Luton Town - Sheffield Wednesday	2:1 ✺
14.09.24	Millwall - Luton Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LTLWW
- Watford FC
English League Championship
05.10.24	Watford - Middlesbrough	2:1 ✺
02.10.24	Preston North End - Watford	3:0 ✺
28.09.24	Watford - Sunderland	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
24.09.24	Manchester City - Watford	2:1 ✺
English League Championship
21.09.24	Norwich City - Watford	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
01.04.23	Luton Town - Watford	2:0
23.10.22	Watford - Luton Town	4:0
17.04.21	Luton Town - Watford	1:0
26.09.20	Watford - Luton Town	1:0

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