Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 13

Date: 1 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Millot B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
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Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 5
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
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Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV App
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV5
Russia	Okko Sport
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Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Montpellier		Lille

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.7	1.67	Watch
	5	3.8	1.68
	4.85	3.9	1.7	Watch
	5.38	3.91	1.7
	5.2	3.85	1.71	Watch
	4.8	3.8	1.7
	4.87	4.08	1.77	Watch
	4.85	3.9	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.03 ↑ (4.15)	3.87 ↓ (3.93)	1.7 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
19.1%

Draw
24.8%

Lille
56.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.9%

24.2%

52.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

23.7%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.6%	21.1%	76.3%

Montpellier - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 1 - 2.6%). Lille will win (votes: 29 - 76.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 62.8% – 89.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lecomte B. (G) 29. Tchato E. 52. Maksimovic N. 27. Omeragic B. 3. Sylla I. 12. Ferri J. 13. Chotard J. 9. Al-Tamari M. 11. Savanier T. (C) 7. Nordin A. 10. Khazri W.	30. Chevalier L. (G) 2. Mandi A. 18. Diakite B. 4. Alexsandro 20. Bakker M. 21. Andre B. (C) 32. Bouaddi A. 19. Fernandez-Pardo M. 17. Mukau N. 10. Cabella R. 9. David J.
Substitutes
15. Bares G. 16. Bertaud D. (G) 70. Coulibaly T. 38. Gueguin A. 41. Ndiaye J. 19. Nzingoula R. 77. Sacko F. 5. Sagnan M. 17. Sainte-Luce T.	27. Bayo M. 26. Gomes A. 5. Gudmundsson G. 7. Haraldsson H. 31. Ismaily 1. Mannone V. (G) 12. Meunier T. 11. Sahraoui O. 36. Toure O.
Coaches
Gasset J.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', Maksimovic N. 🟨,
26', Mukau N. 🟨,
35', Tchato E. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, David J. (Pen),
45+2', 1 - 1, Sylla I. ⚽, Savanier T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', Alexsandro 🟨,
52', Savanier T. 🟨,
52', Cabella R. 🟨,
54', 1 - 2, David J. (Pen),
63', Ferri J. ↓, Nzingoula R. ↑,
63', Khazri W. ↓, Ndiaye J. ↑,
63', Omeragic B. ↓, Sagnan M. ↑,
68', Cabella R. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
68', Mukau N. ↓, Haraldsson H. ↑,
77', Bakker M. ↓, Gudmundsson G. ↑,
81', Savanier T. ↓, Coulibaly T. ↑,
83', Sagnan M. 🟨,
86', Gasset J. 🟥,
88', Maksimovic N. ↓, Bares G. ↑,
89', Fernandez-Pardo M. 🟨,
90', David J. ↓, Bayo M. ↑,
90', Fernandez-Pardo M. ↓, Meunier T. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 2, Nordin A. ⚽,
90+9', Coulibaly T. 🟥,
90+9', Bakker M. 🟥,
90+13', Haraldsson H. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 0.

Montpellier is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lille is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lille could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lille is a favorite.

There will not play in Montpellier: Adams A. (Thigh Injury) Fayad K. (Injury) Issoufou Y. (Thigh Injury) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Kouyate K. (Surgery) Mincarelli L. (Injury)

There will not play in Lille: Bentaleb N. (Injury) Gomes A. (Muscle Injury) Gomes A. (Calf Injury) Mbappe E. (Muscle Injury) Santos T. (Knee Injury) Umtiti S. (Knee Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 13 matches and goals 16:28 (average 0.8:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 10:13 (average 1.1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
23.11.24	Saint-Étienne - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
10.11.24	Montpellier - Brest	3:1 ✺
03.11.24	Le Havre - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
27.10.24	Montpellier - Toulouse	0:3 ✺
20.10.24	Montpellier - Olympique Marseille	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWLLL
- OSC Lille
UEFA Champions League
27.11.24	Bologna - Lille	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
24.11.24	Lille - Rennes	1:0 ✺
10.11.24	Nice - Lille	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.24	Lille - Juventus	1:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.11.24	Lille - Lyon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
28.01.24	Montpellier - Lille	0:0
03.09.23	Lille - Montpellier	1:0
16.04.23	Lille - Montpellier	2:1
04.09.22	Montpellier - Lille	1:3
12.02.22	Montpellier - Lille	0:1
29.08.21	Lille - Montpellier	2:1
16.04.21	Lille - Montpellier	1:1

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