Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 3

Date: 4 May 2023, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Dr. Nicolás Leoz (Asunción) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ospina J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	10:00	beIN Sports
Brazil	21:00	ESPN
Czech Republic	02:00	Nova Sport 4
Portugal	01:00	Sport TV


	Libertad Asuncion		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.4
	2.17	3.25	3.55
	2.17	3.29	3.72
	2.1	3	3.4
	2.12	3.28	3.56	Watch
	2.17	3.2	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.53)	3.22 ↑ (3.07)	3.47 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
43.7%

Draw
29.2%

Athletico Paranaense
27.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37%

30.4%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

30.5%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Libertad Asuncion's performance.

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletico Paranaense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Libertad Asuncion that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletico Paranaense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Libertad Asuncion - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 9 - 90%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Libertad: 71.4% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Libertad is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Athletico PR is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Libertad will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Libertad won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Libertad won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
29.04.23	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	2:1 ✺
24.04.23	Sportivo Luqueño - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.04.23	Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
17.04.23	Libertad Asuncion - Resistencia	4:0 ✺
13.04.23	Guaraní Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLWT
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
29.04.23	Atlético Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.04.23	Athletico Paranaense - CRB Maceio	3:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.04.23	Fluminense - Athletico Paranaense	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.04.23	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.04.23	Athletico Paranaense - Goiás	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
05.07.22	Libertad Asuncion - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
28.06.22	Athletico Paranaense - Libertad Asuncion	2:1
18.05.22	Athletico Paranaense - Libertad Asuncion	2:0
26.04.22	Libertad Asuncion - Athletico Paranaense	1:0

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
31.10.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Libertad Asuncion	✺
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
04.11.26	Athletico Paranaense - Vasco da Gama	✺
29.10.26	Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense	✺

Libertad Asuncion - Athletico Paranaense