Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 6

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)

Referee: Lissorgue R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+ 5, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 8
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Sport


	Metz		Le Havre

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.25	2.75	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.72
	2.69	3.35	2.8
	2.82	2.78	2.87	Watch
	2.75	3.47	2.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.46)	3.22 ↓ (3.4)	2.78 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metz
35.5%

Draw
29.9%

Le Havre
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

27.9%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

28.8%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Le Havre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	35%	40%

Metz - Le Havre Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Metz will win (votes: 5 - 25%). Le Havre will win (votes: 8 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Havre: 18.5% – 61.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Metz (votes: 1 - 20%). Le Havre (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Metz (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Metz (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Metz (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Le Havre (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fischer J. (G) 39. Kouao K. 5. Gbamin J. 15. Yegbe T. 19. Bokele Mputu M. 8. Traore B. 20. Deminguet J. 4. Mboula U. 10. Hein G. (C) 14. Sabaly C. 30. Diallo H.	99. Diaw M. (G) 7. Nego L. 6. Youte Kinkoue E. 4. Lloris G. 18. Zouaoui Y. 26. Ebonog S. 15. Seko A. 94. Toure A. (C) 30. Khadra R. 70. Samatta A. 45. Soumare I.
Substitutes
9. Abuashvili G. 2. Colin M. 29. Guerti I. 24. Madjo B. 23. Sane I. 61. Sy P. (G) 12. Toure A. 7. Tsitaishvili G.	23. Delaine T. 13. Doucoure F. 11. Kyeremeh G. 10. Mambimbi F. 78. Mosengo D. N. 77. Mpasi-Nzau L. (G) 21. Namli Y. 14. Ndiaye R. 9. Pizarro D.
Coaches
Le Mignan S.	Digard D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Zouaoui Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mboula U. ↓, Tsitaishvili G. ↑,
51', Deminguet J. 🟨,
61', Ebonog S. ↓, Ndiaye R. ↑,
61', Samatta A. ↓, Doucoure F. ↑,
74', Traore B. 🟨,
76', Zouaoui Y. ↓, Delaine T. ↑,
80', Hein G. ↓, Sane I. ↑,
81', Bokele Mputu M. ↓, Abuashvili G. ↑,
85', Khadra R. ↓, Namli Y. ↑,
86', Toure A. ↓, Mambimbi F. ↑,
87', Deminguet J. ↓, Toure A. ↑,
88', Youte Kinkoue E. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 1.

Metz has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Le Havre has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Metz: Mbaye M. (Foot Injury) Sane S. (Red Card) Stambouli B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Le Havre: Ebonog S. (Knock)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Metz won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 0.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
21.09.25	Monaco - Metz	5:2 ✺
14.09.25	Metz - Angers	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Paris FC - Metz	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Lyon - Metz	3:0 ✺
17.08.25	Metz - Strasbourg	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLLL
- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
21.09.25	Le Havre - Lorient	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Strasbourg - Le Havre	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Le Havre - Nice	3:1 ✺
24.08.25	Le Havre - Lens	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Monaco - Le Havre	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
21.04.24	Le Havre - Metz	0:1
29.10.23	Metz - Le Havre	0:0
French Ligue 2
13.03.23	Metz - Le Havre	1:1
24.10.22	Le Havre - Metz	2:0
04.03.19	Le Havre - Metz	2:2
29.09.18	Metz - Le Havre	0:1
13.02.16	Metz - Le Havre	0:1

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