Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 7

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
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United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
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Venezuela	Disney+


	Metz		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.75	1.5	Watch
	5.75	4.6	1.5
	5.9	4.45	1.52
	5.94	4.34	1.58
	21.59	6.97	1.14	Watch
	6.12	4.7	1.57	Watch
	5.7	4.65	1.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.07 ↑ (6.12)	4.92 ↑ (4.46)	1.48 ↓ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metz
12.3%

Draw
20.2%

Olympique Marseille
67.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.5%

21.3%

63.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.9%

20.5%

65.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.3%	6.9%	82.8%

Metz - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.25 - Marseille (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (24 of 29 users predict this - 82.76%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.01% – 96.51%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 8 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fischer J. (G) 5. Gbamin J. 38. Sane S. 15. Yegbe T. 39. Kouao K. 8. Traore B. 20. Deminguet J. 97. Ballo-Toure F. 10. Hein G. (C) 14. Sabaly C. 30. Diallo H.	1. Rulli G. (G) 22. Weah T. 28. Pavard B. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 8. Gomes A. 23. Hojbjerg P. (C) 10. Greenwood M. 17. O'Riley M. 14. Paixao I. 34. Vaz R.
Substitutes
9. Abuashvili G. 19. Bokele Mputu M. 2. Colin M. 29. Guerti I. 24. Madjo B. 23. Sane I. 61. Sy P. (G) 12. Toure A. 7. Tsitaishvili G.	97. Aubameyang P. 5. Balerdi L. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 6. Garcia U. 9. Gouiri A. 62. Murillo M. 26. Nadir B. 18. Vermeeren A.
Coaches
Le Mignan S.	De Zerbi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Gbamin J. ↓, Colin M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
51', 0 - 1, Paixao I. ⚽, Vaz R. (A),
64', Vaz R. ↓, Gouiri A. ↑,
64', Gomes A. ↓, Balerdi L. ↑,
69', 0 - 2, O'Riley M. ⚽, Gouiri A. (A),
76', 0 - 3, Gouiri A. ⚽, O'Riley M. (A),
79', Deminguet J. ↓, Toure A. ↑,
79', Ballo-Toure F. ↓, Tsitaishvili G. ↑,
79', Diallo H. ↓, Madjo B. ↑,
80', Weah T. ↓, Murillo M. ↑,
80', Paixao I. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,
85', O'Riley M. ↓, Vermeeren A. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 1.

Metz has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Marseille is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Metz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Marseille is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Metz: Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Mbaye M. (Foot Injury) Mboula U. (Muscle Injury) Stambouli B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Marseille: Kondogbia G. (Calf Injury) Medina F. (Ankle Injury) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Marseille: Balerdi L. (Inactive)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Metz won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 12:22. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.9:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
28.09.25	Metz - Le Havre	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Monaco - Metz	5:2 ✺
14.09.25	Metz - Angers	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Paris FC - Metz	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Lyon - Metz	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TLTLL
- Olympique Marseille
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Ajax	4:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
26.09.25	Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille	1:2 ✺
22.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Real Madrid - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
12.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
09.02.24	Olympique Marseille - Metz	1:1
18.08.23	Metz - Olympique Marseille	2:2
13.02.22	Metz - Olympique Marseille	1:2
07.11.21	Olympique Marseille - Metz	0:0
23.05.21	Metz - Olympique Marseille	1:0
26.09.20	Olympique Marseille - Metz	1:1
16.05.20	Olympique Marseille - Metz	Canceled

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