Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 25

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Pignard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	Disney+
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, DAZN 2, DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	K Sport 2
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	ESPN 5 Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Lille		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.5	7	Watch
	1.4	4.8	7.25
	1.4	4.9	7.3	Watch
	1.43	4.92	8.03
	1.43	4.85	7.69	Watch
	1.4	4.6	7
	1.49	4.67	6.98	Watch
	1.4	4.9	7.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.41)	4.77 ↓ (4.95)	7.32 ↓ (7.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Network on TV: beIN SPORTS En Español

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Current Win Probability

Lille
67%

Draw
20%

Montpellier
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.9%

19.3%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.8%

18.3%

12.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.4%	20.5%	5.1%

Lille - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 29 - 74.4%). Montpellier will win (votes: 2 - 5.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 20.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 60.7% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Chevalier L. (G) 12. Meunier T. 18. Diakite B. 4. Alexsandro 20. Bakker M. 26. Gomes A. 32. Bouaddi A. 10. Cabella R. 21. Andre B. (C) 7. Haraldsson H. 9. David J.	40. Lecomte B. (C) 77. Sacko F. 47. Mouanga Y. 4. Kouyate K. 5. Sagnan M. 17. Sainte-Luce T. 19. Nzingoula R. 13. Chotard J. 11. Savanier T. 9. Delort A. 70. Coulibaly T.
Substitutes
24. Akpom Ch. 6. Bentaleb N. 19. Fernandez-Pardo M. 8. Gomes A. 5. Gudmundsson G. 31. Ismaily 2. Mandi A. 1. Mannone V. (G) 17. Mukau N.	16. Bertaud D. (G) 44. Chennahi T. 12. Ferri J. 10. Khazri W. 14. Maamma O. 2. Meite A. 41. Ndiaye J. 49. Ndollo Bille W. 18. Pays N.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Gasset J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Alexsandro 🟨,
36', Nzingoula R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bakker M. ↓, Ismaily ↑,
50', 1 - 0, David J. ⚽, Ismaily (A),
67', Meunier T. ↓, Mandi A. ↑,
68', David J. ↓, Akpom Ch. ↑,
68', Mouanga Y. ↓, Maamma O. ↑,
71', Sainte-Luce T. 🟨,
75', Nzingoula R. ↓, Pays N. ↑,
76', Coulibaly T. ↓, Khazri W. ↑,
76', Haraldsson H. ↓, Fernandez-Pardo M. ↑,
78', Kouyate K. 🟨,
84', Diakite B. 🟨,
85', Sacko F. ↓, Ndollo Bille W. ↑,
86', Bouaddi A. ↓, Bentaleb N. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lille won 3.

Recent matches Lille is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Montpellier has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lille could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lille is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Lille: Santos T. (Knee Injury) Umtiti S. (Knee Injury) Zhegrova E. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Montpellier: Fayad K. (Yellow Cards) Gueguin A. (Ribs Injury) Issoufou Y. (Injury) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Maamma O. (Injury) Maksimovic N. (Thigh Injury) Omeragic B. (Knee Injury) Sylla I. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Lille: Sahraoui O. (Hip Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Lille won 12 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 28:18 (average 1.4:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Lille won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13:6 (average 1.3:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
UEFA Champions League
04.03.25	Borussia Dortmund - Lille	1:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.03.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Lille	4:1 ✺
22.02.25	Lille - Monaco	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	Rennes - Lille	0:2 ✺
08.02.25	Lille - Le Havre	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TLWWL
- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
02.03.25	Montpellier - Rennes	0:4 ✺
23.02.25	Nice - Montpellier	2:0 ✺
16.02.25	Montpellier - Lyon	1:4 ✺
09.02.25	Strasbourg - Montpellier	2:0 ✺
31.01.25	Montpellier - Lens	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
01.12.24	Montpellier - Lille	2:2
28.01.24	Montpellier - Lille	0:0
03.09.23	Lille - Montpellier	1:0
16.04.23	Lille - Montpellier	2:1
04.09.22	Montpellier - Lille	1:3
12.02.22	Montpellier - Lille	0:1
29.08.21	Lille - Montpellier	2:1

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