Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 22

Date: 16 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Bollengier M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3, Moja TV
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1, ART Sport 2
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV4
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 5
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
World	Disney+, Onefootball


	Montpellier		Lyon

	1	X	2
	5	4.75	1.57	Watch
	5.4	4.45	1.55
	5.43	4.59	1.58
	5.31	4.58	1.59	Watch
	5	4.4	1.57
	5.27	4.76	1.62	Watch
	5.4	4.45	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.26 ↑ (4.04)	4.57 ↑ (4.14)	1.58 ↓ (1.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
18.2%

Draw
21%

Lyon
60.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.7%

23.1%

53.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

23.9%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Montpellier's form might have worsened.

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lyon's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lyon, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.1%	10.6%	87.2%

Montpellier - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: Lyon will win (41 of 47 users predict this - 87.23%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.69% – 96.77%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lecomte B. (C) 29. Tchato E. 47. Mouanga Y. 2. Meite A. 17. Sainte-Luce T. 13. Chotard J. 12. Ferri J. 19. Nzingoula R. 70. Coulibaly T. 9. Delort A. 11. Savanier T.	1. Lucas Perri (G) 20. Kumbedi S. 22. Clinton Mata 19. Niakhate M. 3. Tagliafico N. 31. Matic N. 15. Tessmann T. 18. Cherki R. 8. Tolisso C. (C) 37. Nuamah E. 69. Mikautadze G.
Substitutes
16. Bertaud D. (G) 44. Chennahi T. 22. Fayad K. 10. Khazri W. 4. Kouyate K. 21. Mincarelli L. 15. Ndiaye J. 18. Pays N. 77. Sacko F.	16. Abner Vinicius 23. Almada T. 55. Caleta-Car D. 40. Descamps R. (G) 11. Fofana M. 10. Lacazette A. 98. Maitland-Niles A. 29. Molebe E. 7. Veretout J.
Coaches
Gasset J.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Mikautadze G. ⚽, Cherki R. (A),
29', Coulibaly T. 🟨,
34', Delort A. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Coulibaly T. ⚽, Savanier T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
50', 1 - 2, Nuamah E. ⚽, Matic N. (A),
53', 1 - 3, Tolisso C. ⚽, Nuamah E. (A),
62', Nzingoula R. ↓, Fayad K. ↑,
62', Meite A. ↓, Kouyate K. ↑,
64', Tagliafico N. 🟨,
69', Coulibaly T. ↓, Pays N. ↑,
69', Ferri J. ↓, Ndiaye J. ↑,
69', Delort A. ↓, Khazri W. ↑,
70', Cherki R. ↓, Almada T. ↑,
70', Tagliafico N. ↓, Abner Vinicius ↑,
70', Mikautadze G. ↓, Lacazette A. ↑,
73', 1 - 4, Lacazette A. ⚽, Abner Vinicius (A),
78', Matic N. ↓, Veretout J. ↑,
78', Tolisso C. ↓, Fofana M. ↑,
86', Sainte-Luce T. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 1.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Montpellier could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Lyon is a favorite.

There will not play in Montpellier: Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Maksimovic N. (Thigh Injury) Sylla I. (Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 28:36 (average 1.4:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13:14 (average 1.3:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
09.02.25	Strasbourg - Montpellier	2:0 ✺
31.01.25	Montpellier - Lens	0:2 ✺
26.01.25	Toulouse - Montpellier	1:2 ✺
17.01.25	Montpellier - Monaco	2:1 ✺
12.01.25	Montpellier - Angers	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 LLWWL
- Olympique Lyon
French Ligue 1
09.02.25	Lyon - Reims	4:0 ✺
02.02.25	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Lyon - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
26.01.25	Nantes - Lyon	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.01.25	Fenerbahçe - Lyon	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
04.01.25	Lyon - Montpellier	1:0
11.02.24	Montpellier - Lyon	1:2
19.08.23	Lyon - Montpellier	1:4
07.05.23	Lyon - Montpellier	5:4
22.10.22	Montpellier - Lyon	1:2
23.04.22	Lyon - Montpellier	5:2
28.11.21	Montpellier - Lyon	0:1

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