Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 22 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio de Balaídos (Vigo)

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Celta de Vigo		Lille

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	3.3
	2.35	3.3	3
	2.3	3.3	3.3
	2.25	3.6	2.8
	2.38	3.35	3.04	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.2
	2.22	3.37	3.54
	2.36	3.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.3)	3.34 ↓ (3.54)	3.15 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celta de Vigo
41.5%

Draw
28.4%

Lille
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

26.7%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

26.3%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celta de Vigo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46%	40%	14%

Celta de Vigo - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Celta will win (votes: 23 - 46%). Lille will win (votes: 7 - 14%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celta: 32.2% – 59.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 9 - 42.9%). Lille (votes: 3 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 9 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Celta (1.63) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 57.1%) .

DC - Celta (1.39) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +0.25 - Lille (1.87) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Celta (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 32 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 18 - 56.3%). Lille (votes: 5 - 15.6%). Tie (votes: 9 - 28.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Radu I. (G) 32. Rodriguez J. 2. Starfelt C. 20. Alonso M. 17. Rueda J. 22. Sotelo H. 16. Roman M. 3. Mingueza O. 10. Aspas I. (C) 7. Iglesias B. 19. Swedberg W.	1. Ozer B. (G) 12. Meunier T. 3. Ngoy N. 4. Alexsandro 15. Perraud R. 14. Broholm M. 17. Mukau N. 6. Bentaleb N. 27. Correia F. 10. Haraldsson H. 9. Giroud O. (C)
Substitutes
23. Alvarez H. 31. Burcio H. 5. Carreira S. 11. Cervi F. 18. Duran P. 39. El Abdellaoui J. 12. Fernandez M. 9. Jutgla F. 29. Lago Y. 21. Ristic M. 1. Villar I. (G) 15. Zaragoza B.	39. Baret L. 16. Bodart A. (G) 42. Boussadia S. 35. Diaoune S. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M. 38. Goffi A. 23. Mandi A. 18. Mbemba Ch. 40. Sajous T. (G) 22. Santos T. 24. Verdonk C.
Coaches
Giraldez C.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Swedberg W. ⚽, Aspas I. (A),
10', Bentaleb N. ↓, Mandi A. ↑,
29', Sotelo H. 🟥,
31', Alonso M. 🟨,
32', Ngoy N. 🟨,
33', Mingueza O. 🟨,
40', Mandi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Iglesias B. ↓, Duran P. ↑,
46', Aspas I. ↓, Carreira S. ↑,
46', Alexsandro ↓, Fernandez-Pardo M. ↑,
46', Meunier T. ↓, Santos T. ↑,
64', Swedberg W. 🟨,
69', 2 - 0, Starfelt C. ⚽, Roman M. (A),
71', Swedberg W. ↓, El Abdellaoui J. ↑,
74', Correia F. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
82', Radu I. 🟨,
86', 2 - 1, Giroud O. ⚽, Diaoune S. (A),
87', Broholm M. ↓, Verdonk C. ↑,
89', Mingueza O. ↓, Alvarez H. ↑,
90+2', Rueda J. ↓, Ristic M. ↑,

Preview

Celta is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lille has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Celta: Aidoo J. (Inactive) Allende T. (Inactive) Dominguez C. (Ankle Injury) Moriba I. (Yellow Cards) de la Torre L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Lille: Andre B. (Injury) Bouaddi A. (Red Card) Gomes A. (Inactive) Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Lille: Fernandez-Pardo M. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Celta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Celta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Celta Vigo: 4.38%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
25	Celta Vigo	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
18.01.26	Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano	3:0 ✺
12.01.26	Sevilla - Celta de Vigo	0:1 ✺
03.01.26	Celta de Vigo - Valencia	4:1 ✺
20.12.25	Real Oviedo - Celta de Vigo	0:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.12.25	Albacete Balompié - Celta de Vigo	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWTL
- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
16.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Lille	3:0 ✺
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Lille - Lyon	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
03.01.26	Lille - Rennes	0:2 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Lusitanos Saint-Maur - Lille	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.12.25	Auxerre - Lille	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
30.07.24	Lille - Celta de Vigo	3:1
27.07.19	Celta de Vigo - Lille	1:0

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