Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 11 December 2024, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kabakov G. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	14:45	ESPN 2, Fox Sports
Armenia	21:45	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Canal+
Belgium	18:45	Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	14:45	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, Space, Space, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	12:45	DAZN Canada
China	01:45	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	12:45	ESPN 2
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	18:45	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	18:45	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	19:45	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	18:45	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
Georgia	21:45	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	18:45	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Hong Kong	01:45	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	18:45	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	17:45	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	23:15	Sony LIV
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect, Vidio
Ireland	17:45	Virgin Media Player
Italy	18:45	NOW TV, Sky Sport 254
Kosovo	18:45	ART Motion Sport 1
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	18:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	11:45	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Myanmar	00:15	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	18:45	Ziggo Sport 3
New Zealand	06:45	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
Norway	18:45	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium
Pakistan	22:45	Tapmad
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect
Poland	18:45	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	17:45	DAZN 2
Romania	19:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	20:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	18:45	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	01:45	beIN Sport 1, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	18:45	Voyo
South America	—	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 3
Sweden	18:45	Viaplay
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 9, Blue Sport 9, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	01:45	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	20:45	TRT Spor
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United Kingdom	17:45	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 4, Virgin Media More
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	13:45	Inter
Vietnam	00:45	TV 360
International	17:45	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, Virgin TV Go app


	Lille		Sturm Graz

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	6.25
	1.52	4.2	6.25
	1.52	4.6	6.2
	1.51	4.46	6.8
	1.47	4.66	7.26	Watch
	1.5	4.2	7
	1.56	4.3	6.86
	1.52	4.5	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.53)	4.41 ↓ (4.44)	6.64 ↑ (5.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
63.7%

Draw
21.8%

Sturm Graz
14.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.4%

21.5%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

20.9%

15.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.5%	6.3%	3.2%

Lille - Sturm Graz Predictions

Users Predictions: Lille will win (86 of 95 users predict this - 90.53%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.64% – 96.42%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Chevalier L. (G) 12. Meunier T. 18. Diakite B. 4. Alexsandro 20. Bakker M. 31. Ismaily 10. Cabella R. 21. Andre B. (C) 32. Bouaddi A. 11. Sahraoui O. 9. David J.	53. Khudyakov D. (G) 2. Johnston M. 35. Geyrhofer N. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 5. Wuthrich G. 24. Lavalee D. 21. Chukwuani T. 10. Kiteishvili O. 8. Yalcouye M. 18. Biereth M. 15. Boving W.
Substitutes
27. Bayo M. 16. Caillard M. (G) 39. Cossier I. 19. Fernandez-Pardo M. 5. Gudmundsson G. 7. Haraldsson H. 2. Mandi A. 1. Mannone V. (G) 17. Mukau N. 36. Toure O.	47. Aiwu E. 40. Bignetti M. (G) 36. Camara A. 25. Hierlander S. 43. Hodl J. 19. Horvat T. 20. Jatta S. 17. Karic E. 23. Malic A. 45. Wiener-Pucher C. (G) 9. Yardimci E. 14. Zvonarek L.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Saumel J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', Chukwuani T. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Sahraoui O. ⚽, Alexsandro (A),
45+2', 2 - 0, Bakker M. ⚽,
45+4', 2 - 1, Kiteishvili O. ⚽, Chukwuani T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 2 - 2, Biereth M. ⚽, Boving W. (A),
56', Bouaddi A. ↓, Mukau N. ↑,
68', Ismaily ↓, Gudmundsson G. ↑,
68', Cabella R. ↓, Fernandez-Pardo M. ↑,
74', Bakker M. 🟨,
80', Bakker M. ↓, Haraldsson H. ↑,
80', Sahraoui O. ↓, Bayo M. ↑,
81', 3 - 2, Haraldsson H. ⚽, David J. (A),
84', Gorenc Stankovic J. ↓, Hierlander S. ↑,
85', Boving W. ↓, Horvat T. ↑,
87', Johnston M. ↓, Malic A. ↑,
87', Chukwuani T. ↓, Jatta S. ↑,

Preview

Lille is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Sturm is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Lille is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Lille: Mbappe E. (Muscle Injury) Santos T. (Knee Injury) Umtiti S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Sturm: Gazibegovic J. (Yellow Cards) Scherpen K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lille: Gomes A. (Calf Injury) Meunier T. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Sturm: Borkovic A. (Knee Injury)

Our prediction for today's Lille to win the game is with odds 1.49.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Lille won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:1 (average 2:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Lille won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
06.12.24	Lille - Brest	3:1 ✺
01.12.24	Montpellier - Lille	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
27.11.24	Bologna - Lille	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
24.11.24	Lille - Rennes	1:0 ✺
10.11.24	Nice - Lille	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WTWWT
- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
07.12.24	Swarovski Tirol - Sturm Graz	0:3 ✺
30.11.24	Rheindorf Altach - Sturm Graz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
27.11.24	Sturm Graz - Girona	1:0 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
23.11.24	Sturm Graz - Austria Klagenfurt	7:0 ✺
09.11.24	Hartberg - Sturm Graz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
14.03.24	Lille - Sturm Graz	1:1
07.03.24	Sturm Graz - Lille	0:3

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