Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 27 November 2024, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (Bologna)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 4, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Variety 1
Argentina	Flow Eventos
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 6
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 6, Pickx+ Sports 6, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5, Moja TV
Brazil	Max
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 4
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 4
India	Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1, ART Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 2
Portugal	DAZN 4
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2, Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
South-america	ESPN 6 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 8, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 8
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app


	Bologna		Lille

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	3.4
	2.3	3.1	3.3
	2.32	3.25	3.3	Watch
	2.36	3.17	3.47
	2.36	3.12	3.44	Watch
	2.38	3.1	3.3
	2.38	3.24	3.43
	2.32	3.25	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.44)	3.18 ↓ (3.39)	3.37 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bologna
41.2%

Draw
30.2%

Lille
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

28.1%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

29.4%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bologna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.3%	57.3%	25.3%

Bologna - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: 71 users predict this event. Bologna will win (votes: 12 - 16.9%). Lille will win (votes: 19 - 26.8%). It will Tie (votes: 40 - 56.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 44.8% – 67.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Skorupski L. (G) 3. Posch S. 31. Beukema S. 26. Lucumi J. 22. Lykogiannis C. 80. Fabbian G. 8. Freuler R. 19. Ferguson L. (C) 7. Orsolini R. 24. Dallinga T. 11. Ndoye D.	30. Chevalier L. (G) 12. Meunier T. 4. Alexsandro 18. Diakite B. 5. Gudmundsson G. 17. Mukau N. 21. Andre B. (C) 32. Bouaddi A. 11. Sahraoui O. 9. David J. 19. Fernandez-Pardo M.
Substitutes
15. Casale N. 9. Castro S. 16. Corazza T. 5. Erlic M. 2. Holm E. 14. Iling Junior S. 33. Miranda J. 6. Moro N. 21. Odgaard J. 18. Pobega T. 34. Ravaglia F. (G) 82. Urbanski K.	20. Bakker M. 27. Bayo M. 10. Cabella R. 16. Caillard M. (G) 7. Haraldsson H. 31. Ismaily 2. Mandi A. 1. Mannone V. (G) 36. Toure O. 23. Zhegrova E.
Coaches
Italiano V.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Alexsandro 🟨,
33', Lykogiannis C. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Mukau N. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Meunier T. 🟨,
63', 1 - 1, Lucumi J. ⚽, Lykogiannis C. (A),
66', 1 - 2, Mukau N. ⚽, Fernandez-Pardo M. (A),
68', Lykogiannis C. ↓, Miranda J. ↑,
68', Orsolini R. ↓, Odgaard J. ↑,
73', Sahraoui O. ↓, Zhegrova E. ↑,
73', Meunier T. ↓, Mandi A. ↑,
75', Fabbian G. ↓, Castro S. ↑,
80', Mandi A. 🟨,
84', Odgaard J. 🟨,
85', Ndoye D. ↓, Iling Junior S. ↑,
85', Posch S. ↓, Holm E. ↑,
86', Fernandez-Pardo M. ↓, Bakker M. ↑,
86', Mukau N. ↓, Haraldsson H. ↑,
90+5', Zhegrova E. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Bologna is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lille is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bologna will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Bologna: Aebischer M. (Muscle Injury) Cambiaghi N. (Knee Injury) El Azzouzi O. (Knee Injury) Erlic M. (Hamstring Injury) Ferguson L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lille: Gomes A. (Calf Injury) Mbappe E. (Muscle Injury) Santos T. (Knee Injury) Umtiti S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Lille: Ismaily (Knee Injury) Meunier T. (Muscle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bologna FC
Italian Serie A
24.11.24	Lazio - Bologna	3:0 ✺
10.11.24	Roma - Bologna	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.24	Bologna - Monaco	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.11.24	Bologna - Lecce	1:0 ✺
29.10.24	Cagliari - Bologna	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWLWW
- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
24.11.24	Lille - Rennes	1:0 ✺
10.11.24	Nice - Lille	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.24	Lille - Juventus	1:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.11.24	Lille - Lyon	1:1 ✺
26.10.24	Lens - Lille	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WTTTW

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