Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 35

Date: 4 March 2025, Tuesday

Location: LNER stadium (Lincoln)

Referee: Smith J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Lincoln City		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	5.25	Watch
	1.7	3.75	5	Watch
	1.72	3.73	5.24
	1.71	3.57	5.03	Watch
	1.7	3.7	5
	1.7	3.84	4.9	Watch
	1.7	3.75	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.61)	3.69 ↑ (3.6)	5.06 ↓ (5.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lincoln City
55.7%

Draw
25.6%

Crawley Town
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

25.9%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

24.7%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lincoln City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Crawley Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lincoln City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	5.6%	5.6%

Lincoln City - Crawley Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Lincoln City will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wickens G. (G) 22. Hamer T. 5. Jackson A. (C) 23. Roughan S. 2. Darikwa T. 14. McGrandles C. 8. Bayliss T. 16. Jefferies D. 27. Makama J. 7. Hackett-Fairchild R. 25. Collins J.	1. Wollacott J. (G) 5. Barker C. 3. Conroy D. (C) 30. Radcliffe B. 2. Feely R. 26. Doyle K. 6. Anderson M. 22. Adeyemo A. 18. Quitirna A. 9. Swan W. 45. John-Jules T.
Substitutes
9. Cadamarteri B. 24. Clucas S. 34. Draper F. 32. Gardner J. 11. Hamilton E. 18. House B. 31. Jeacock Z. (G)	7. Forster H. 8. Holohan G. 25. Papadopoulos A. 21. Sheik J. (G) 17. Tanimu B. 27. Watson L.
Coaches
Skubala M.	Elliot R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Doyle K. ⚽,
14', 1 - 1, Collins J. ⚽, Jefferies D. (A),
24', 2 - 1, Makama J. ⚽,
32', 3 - 1, Jefferies D. ⚽, Makama J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Feely R. ↓, Watson L. ↑,
64', Jefferies D. ↓, Gardner J. ↑,
64', Makama J. ↓, House B. ↑,
64', Conroy D. ↓, Tanimu B. ↑,
72', Bayliss T. ↓, Clucas S. ↑,
74', Doyle K. ↓, Holohan G. ↑,
80', Collins J. ↓, Cadamarteri B. ↑,
80', Hackett-Fairchild R. ↓, Hamilton E. ↑,
85', Radcliffe B. 🟨,
86', Adeyemo A. ↓, Papadopoulos A. ↑,
88', 4 - 1, Gardner J. ⚽, Hamilton E. (A),

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 13 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lincoln won 2.

Lincoln is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Crawley is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Crawley have a series of home games.

In this match Lincoln is a favorite.

There will not play in Lincoln: Walker T. (Injury)

There will not play in Crawley: Flint J. (Injury) Hepburn-Murphy R. (Red Card) Mukena J. (Injury) Sandford R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lincoln: Cadamarteri B. (Groin Injury) Erhahon E. (Inactive) Moylan J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Crawley: Mullarkey T. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Lincoln won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8:10 (average 1.3:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Lincoln won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1 (average 0:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lincoln City
English League One
01.03.25	Barnsley - Lincoln City	4:3 ✺
22.02.25	Lincoln City - Burton Albion	0:1 ✺
18.02.25	Mansfield Town - Lincoln City	0:3 ✺
15.02.25	Leyton Orient - Lincoln City	3:2 ✺
08.02.25	Lincoln City - Cambridge United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWLT
- Crawley Town
English League One
01.03.25	Crawley Town - Cambridge United	0:2 ✺
22.02.25	Blackpool - Crawley Town	3:1 ✺
18.02.25	Crawley Town - Wigan Athletic	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Crawley Town - Wycombe Wanderers	1:1 ✺
11.02.25	Crawley Town - Stevenage Borough	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
30.11.24	Crawley Town - Lincoln City	3:4
English League One
22.10.24	Crawley Town - Lincoln City	3:0
English League Two
23.03.19	Crawley Town - Lincoln City	0:3
08.09.18	Lincoln City - Crawley Town	0:1
17.02.18	Crawley Town - Lincoln City	3:1
28.10.17	Lincoln City - Crawley Town	0:0

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