Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 9 May 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV


	Liverpool Montevideo		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	6.5	3.75	1.57	Watch
	6	3.8	1.55
	6	4	1.55	Watch
	8	4.25	1.47
	6.75	3.91	1.56
	6.5	3.8	1.5
	6.2	3.95	1.57	Watch
	6	3.75	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.49 ↑ (5.84)	3.9 ↓ (4.01)	1.54 ↓ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liverpool Montevideo
14.5%

Draw
24.2%

Palmeiras
61.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16%

23.3%

60.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.7%

22.9%

61.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liverpool Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.3%	5.3%	89.5%

Liverpool Montevideo - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: Palmeiras will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Lentinelly S. (C) 24. Amaro K. 14. Rosso J. 3. de los Santos M. 23. Martinez E. 18. Cayetano A. 8. Barrios M. 7. Lemos L. 22. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 19. Rodriguez L. 11. Ocampo M.	21. Weverton (G) 2. Marcos Rocha 15. Gustavo Gomez (C) 26. Murilo 22. Piquerez J. 25. Gabriel Menino 5. Moreno A. 41. Estevao 23. Raphael Veiga 17. Lazaro 9. Endrick
Substitutes
32. Bregante F. 17. Franco N. 10. Gonzalez A. 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 27. Lopez Y. 9. Machado R. 13. Pastorino T. 15. Rodriguez D. 2. Rodriguez I. 5. Silva M. 20. Vergara H. 31. Wasilewsky L.	16. Caio Paulista 35. Fabinho 42. Flaco Lopez 13. Luan 31. Luis Guilherme 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 12. Mayke 27. Rios R. 20. Romulo 10. Rony 6. Vanderlan 8. Ze Rafael
Coaches
Alfaro E.	Ferreira A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, Raphael Veiga ⚽, Marcos Rocha (A),
2nd Half (0 - 4)
49', Gabriel Menino 🟨,
62', Moreno A. ↓, Ze Rafael ↑,
62', Estevao ↓, Luis Guilherme ↑,
62', Lazaro ↓, Rony ↑,
69', Amaro K. ↓, Franco N. ↑,
69', Ocampo M. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
71', 0 - 2, Raphael Veiga ⚽, Endrick (A),
82', 0 - 3, Endrick ⚽, Rony (A),
85', Endrick 🟨,
85', Endrick ↓, Mayke ↑,
85', Raphael Veiga ↓, Flaco Lopez ↑,
86', Garcia Cardozo D. G. ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑,
86', Lemos L. ↓, Machado R. ↑,
89', Gonzalez A. 🟨,
90', Barrios M. ↓, Silva M. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 4, Rony ⚽, Flaco Lopez (A),
90+6', 0 - 5, Gustavo Gomez (Pen),

Preview

Recent matches Liverpool is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Palmeiras is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Palmeiras could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Palmeiras is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Liverpool won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Liverpool Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2 ✺
28.04.24	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.24	Liverpool Montevideo - San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.04.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
16.04.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Liverpool Montevideo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TLWTW
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
05.05.24	Cuiabá - Palmeiras	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
02.05.24	Palmeiras - Botafogo SP	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.04.24	São Paulo - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.24	Independiente del Valle - Palmeiras	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.24	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
11.04.24	Palmeiras - Liverpool Montevideo	3:1

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