Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, Disney+


	Montevideo Wanderers		Liverpool Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.1	2	Watch
	3.3	3.2	2.1
	3.54	3.35	2.16
	3.46	3.21	2.16	Watch
	3.4	3.1	2.1
	3.42	3.26	2.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↓ (3.45)	3.2 ↑ (3.11)	2.11 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montevideo Wanderers
27.2%

Draw
28.9%

Liverpool Montevideo
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

30%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.2%

29%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montevideo Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Liverpool Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevideo Wanderers than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Montevideo Wanderers - Liverpool Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Liverpool will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Liverpool: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Liverpool (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Liverpool (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Buffa A. (G) 16. Alberti J. 21. Benitez S. 13. Formiliano F. 17. Garcia A. 30. Labandeira F. 15. Mencia Hernandez D. J. 23. Olivera Moreira L. N. 5. Queiroz N. 80. Urretaviscaya J. 19. Zeballos J.	25. Campana M. (G) 24. Amaro K. 11. Bentancourt R. 23. Castillo E. 5. Garayalde N. 15. Laquidain S. 7. Martinez F. 20. Rabunal M. 27. Romero D. 3. Strasorier S. 22. Zabala D.
Coaches
Corujo M.	Fossati J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', Zeballos J. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Zeballos J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Zabala D. ↓, Degregorio R. M. ↑,
66', Rabunal M. ↓, Mir M. ↑,
73', Strasorier S. 🟨,
80', Martinez F. ↓, Machado R. ↑,
80', Bentancourt R. ↓, Barcelo F. ↑,
83', Garcia A. ↓, Rivero R. ↑,
87', Degregorio R. M. 🟨,
87', Urretaviscaya J. 🟨,
90', Labandeira F. ↓, Guzman S. ↑,
90+1', Amaro K. ↓, Lewis K. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wanderers won 1.

Wanderers has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Liverpool has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Liverpool could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wanderers won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:30. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Wanderers won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:8. (average 1.4:0.9).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Wanderers	9	4	3	2	12:11	1	15

Last Results with these Odds

Liverpool Montevideo - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 42.87%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montevideo Wanderers
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.05.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Progreso - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Racing Montevideo	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Boston River - Montevideo Wanderers	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWLLL
- Liverpool Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.05.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Danubio	3:0 ✺
25.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
13.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
16.08.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1
28.06.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	1:2
14.02.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1
15.10.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	1:1
16.04.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Liverpool Montevideo	2:3
07.10.23	Liverpool Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1
27.02.23	Montevideo Wanderers - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1

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