Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 30

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Armando Picchi (Livorno)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Livorno		Perugia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.58	3.15	2.58	Watch
	2.82	3.2	2.59
	2.33	3.17	2.92	Watch
	2.63	2.9	2.45
	2.81	3.12	2.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.69)	3.11 ↑ (2.98)	2.62 ↓ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Livorno
35%

Draw
29.7%

Perugia
35.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.2%

30.9%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

31.9%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Livorno has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Livorno than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Livorno - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Livorno will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Perugia will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Perugia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Perugia (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Perugia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Seghetti J. (G) 15. Ghezzi S. 5. Camporese M. 29. Tosto L. 20. Haveri K. 28. Hamlili Z. 95. Marchesi F. 7. Luperini G. 17. Panaioli L. 11. Malagrida L. 19. Vayrynen T.	1. Gemello L. (G) 15. Dell'Orco C. 13. Stramaccioni D. 28. Riccardi D. 31. Tozzuolo A. 16. Bartolomei P. 20. Tumbarello G. 23. Lisi F. 77. Manzari G. 9. Montevago D. 10. Canotto L.
Substitutes
46. Baldi L. 14. Biondi K. 44. Bonassi L. 22. Ciobanu N. D. (G) 9. Dionisi F. 2. Gentile D. 23. Marinari J. 77. Mawete J. C. 26. Noce M. 4. Odjer M. 55. Peralta D. 1. Tani F. (G)	5. Angella G. 11. Bacchin L. 98. Bolsius D. 26. Calapai L. 19. Dottori C. 4. Joselito 21. Ladinetti R. 32. Megelaitis L. 12. Moro L. (G) 90. Nepi A. 18. Perugini M. 17. Terrnava D. 24. Verre V. 22. Vinti L. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Luperini G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', Vayrynen T. 🟨,
48', 🟨,
52', 0 - 1, Montevago D. ⚽,
56', Canotto L. ↓, Bolsius D. ↑,
67', Panaioli L. ↓, Peralta D. ↑,
67', Marchesi F. ↓, Bonassi L. ↑,
67', Vayrynen T. ↓, Dionisi F. ↑,
71', Lisi F. ↓, Bacchin L. ↑,
80', 0 - 2, Bacchin L. ⚽,
82', Luperini G. ↓, Biondi K. ↑,
84', Bartolomei P. ↓, Megelaitis L. ↑,
84', Manzari G. ↓, Verre V. ↑,
84', Montevago D. ↓, Nepi A. ↑,
90', Stramaccioni D. 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 2, Dionisi F. (Penalty Awarded),
90+4', Ghezzi S. ↓, Marinari J. ↑,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Livorno won 0.

Livorno is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Perugia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Perugia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Livorno won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Livorno won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Livorno	10	4	4	2	15:14	1	16
7	Perugia	10	5	1	4	14:15	-1	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Livorno 1915
Italian Serie C Group B
28.02.26	Sambenedettese - Livorno	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	Livorno - Pineto	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Livorno - Pianese	1:2 ✺
12.02.26	Campobasso - Livorno	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Livorno - Bra	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWLWW
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
28.02.26	Perugia - Pineto	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Perugia - Carpi	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Pianese - Perugia	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Sambenedettese - Perugia	0:1 ✺
30.01.26	Perugia - Ravenna	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
27.10.25	Perugia - Livorno	2:0
Italian Serie B
27.01.20	Perugia - Livorno	1:0
31.08.19	Livorno - Perugia	0:1
30.03.19	Perugia - Livorno	3:1
04.11.18	Livorno - Perugia	2:3
07.05.16	Livorno - Perugia	1:1
18.12.15	Perugia - Livorno	4:1

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