Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 26

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadio Comunale (Piancastagnaio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Pianese		Perugia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.2	2.98	2.25	Watch
	3.54	3.01	2.22
	3.36	2.99	2.2	Watch
	3.3	2.7	2.15
	3.42	2.92	2.14	Watch
	3.5	3	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (2.42)	2.93 ↓ (3.11)	2.19 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pianese
27%

Draw
31.2%

Perugia
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

29.6%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

29.1%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pianese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pianese's form might have worsened.

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Perugia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pianese than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pianese, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Perugia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	16.7%	50%

Pianese - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Pianese will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Perugia will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Perugia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Filippis E. (G) 13. Ercolani L. 15. Gorelli M. 6. Amey W. 19. Sussi C. 4. Colombo M. 8. Simeoni L. (C) 27. Bertini M. 33. Coccia L. 77. Martey C. 11. Bellini L.	1. Gemello L. (G) 32. Megelaitis L. 5. Angella G. 28. Riccardi D. 15. Dell'Orco C. 20. Tumbarello G. 21. Ladinetti R. 10. Canotto L. 24. Verre V. 98. Bolsius D. 9. Montevago D.
Substitutes
5. Balde M. 31. Bigiarini D. 29. Fabrizi L. 47. Jasharovski A. 70. Nicastro M. 9. Ongaro E. 57. Porciatti F. (G) 30. Proietto F. 24. Reali A. (G) 25. Spinosa L. 21. Tirelli M. 71. Xhani K.	11. Bacchin L. 16. Bartolomei P. 30. Giardino C. 4. Joselito 23. Lisi F. 77. Manzari G. 12. Moro L. (G) 90. Nepi A. 71. Rondolini P. 13. Stramaccioni D. 55. Strappini S. (G) 17. Terrnava D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', Verre V. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Coccia L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Tumbarello G. ↓, Joselito ↑,
46', Verre V. ↓, Bacchin L. ↑,
46', Bolsius D. ↓, Nepi A. ↑,
55', 2 - 0, Bertini M. ⚽,
57', Canotto L. ↓, Manzari G. ↑,
59', Martey C. 🟨,
60', Colombo M. ↓, Tirelli M. ↑,
62', Tirelli M. 🟨,
68', Megelaitis L. ↓, Lisi F. ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Nepi A. ⚽,
74', Coccia L. 🟨,
76', Martey C. ↓, Fabrizi L. ↑,
78', Dell'Orco C. 🟨,
80', Sussi C. 🟨,
90', Coccia L. ↓, Balde M. ↑,
90', Bellini L. ↓, Proietto F. ↑,
90+1', Montevago D. 🟨,
90+4', Lisi F. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Pianese won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Pianese won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Perugia	8	4	1	3	9:12	-3	13
15	Pianese	9	1	4	4	6:10	-4	7

Last Results with these Odds

Perugia - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 32.32%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Pianese ASD
Italian Serie C Group B
08.02.26	Arezzo - Pianese	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Pianese - Vis Pesaro	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Sambenedettese - Pianese	0:2 ✺
17.01.26	Pianese - Sassari Torres	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Carpi - Pianese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LLWTT
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
08.02.26	Sambenedettese - Perugia	0:1 ✺
30.01.26	Perugia - Ravenna	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Ascoli - Perugia	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Perugia - Gubbio	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Perugia - Bra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
27.09.25	Perugia - Pianese	0:1
22.12.24	Perugia - Pianese	1:1
24.08.24	Pianese - Perugia	3:3

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