Match Info

USA: USL Championship

Date: 18 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Segra Field (Leesburg, VA)

Referee: Snyder T. (Usa)


	Loudoun United		Monterey Bay

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.3	2.65
	2.35	3.4	2.8
	2.52	3.5	2.74
	2.52	3.32	2.74
	2.42	3.43	2.66	Watch
	2.39	3.3	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.33)	3.38 ↑ (3.26)	2.71 ↓ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Loudoun United
38.4%

Draw
27.4%

Monterey Bay
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

28.1%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

27%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Loudoun United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Monterey Bay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Loudoun United than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Loudoun United - Monterey Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Fauroux H. (G) 3. Tingey K. 22. Dambrot R. 24. Erlandson J. 2. Hughes K. 15. Bidois R. 8. Valot F. 4. McCabe T. 45. Akinmboni M. 14. Ryan Z. (C) 9. Williamson T.	16. Siaha A. (G) 3. Doner M. 4. Lara A. 5. Guzman C. 12. Robinson G. 13. Fehr M. 10. Baca R. 99. Gnaulati X. 11. Martinez W. 20. Orendain A. 31. Boone C.
Substitutes
30. Aboukoura A. 6. Awuah K. 10. Elmedkhar K. 1. Jacomen D. (G) 36. Melly J. 16. Turner C. 40. Turner G. 18. Wane P. 20. Zwetsloot T.	64. Ayon J. 19. Enriquez J. 32. Gallaway P. 24. Glasser M. 14. Guerrero M. 21. Herrera C. (G) 7. Rebollar A.
Coaches
Martin R.	Yallop F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Dambrot R. 🟨,
9', 1 - 0, Bidois R. ⚽, Ryan Z. (A),
16', Orendain A. 🟨,
28', Doner M. 🟨,
38', Orendain A. 🟨,
45', Williamson T. ↓, Elmedkhar K. ↑,
45+5', Lara A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Erlandson J. ↓, Zwetsloot T. ↑,
49', Zwetsloot T. 🟨,
55', Zwetsloot T. ↓, Awuah K. ↑,
56', 2 - 0, Elmedkhar K. ⚽, Awuah K. (A),
58', Gnaulati X. ↓, Guerrero M. ↑,
64', McCabe T. 🟨,
68', Boone C. ↓, Glasser M. ↑,
68', Baca R. ↓, Ayon J. ↑,
68', Fehr M. ↓, Rebollar A. ↑,
75', McCabe T. ↓, Turner C. ↑,
76', Ryan Z. ↓, Wane P. ↑,
79', 3 - 0, Guzman C. (Own goal),
83', Wane P. 🟨,
87', Guzman C. ↓, Gallaway P. ↑,
88', Turner C. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Monterey Bay could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Loudoun won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Loudoun won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Loudoun United
USL Championship
14.05.24	North Carolina - Loudoun United	2:0 ✺
10.05.24	Loudoun United - El Paso Locomotive	0:2 ✺
US Open Cup
07.05.24	Orange County SC - Loudoun United	1:2 ✺
USL Championship
04.05.24	Loudoun United - Detroit City	0:0 ✺
27.04.24	Sacramento Republic - Loudoun United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LLWTL
- Monterey Bay FC
USL Championship
11.05.24	Monterey Bay - Memphis 901	2:2 ✺
US Open Cup
07.05.24	Sacramento Republic - Monterey Bay	2:0 ✺
USL Championship
04.05.24	Monterey Bay - Indy Eleven	0:1 ✺
27.04.24	Orange County SC - Monterey Bay	2:0 ✺
20.04.24	Memphis 901 - Monterey Bay	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
03.06.23	Monterey Bay - Loudoun United	4:1
30.07.22	Loudoun United - Monterey Bay	0:1

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