Match Info

USA: USL Championship

Date: 10 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Lynn Family Stadium (Louisville, KY)

Referee: Demianchuk S. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


North-central-america	ESPNPlay Caribbean
Usa	ESPN 2, ESPN App, FuboTV
World	Disney+


	Louisville City		Sacramento Republic

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3.3	3.6
	1.95	3.4	3.6
	1.64	3.8	4.88
	1.95	3.4	3.87	Watch
	1.91	3.44	3.78	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.67)	3.46 ↓ (3.82)	3.89 ↓ (4.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

Watch this match and USL Championship with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: ESPN2

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Current Win Probability

Louisville City
49.4%

Draw
26.8%

Sacramento Republic
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

24.3%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

23.8%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Louisville City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Louisville City's form might have worsened.

Sacramento Republic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Louisville City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (-4%)

Louisville City - Sacramento Republic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Las D. (G) 4. Totsch S. 5. Ordonez A. 32. Adams K. (C) 2. McFadden A. 23. Wynder E. 17. Davila T. 3. Morris J. 25. Wilson J. 14. Harris W. 7. Serrano R.	1. Vitiello D. (G) 2. Gurr J. 5. Timmer J. 24. Donovan C. 55. Ukaegbu C. 40. Sanchez A. 10. Parano C. 96. Fernandes L. 43. Portillo J. J. 19. Ross N. 23. Phillips K.
Substitutes
6. Charpie W. 27. Davila E. 13. Dia A. 22. Mares D. 11. McCabe N. 16. Perez A. 80. Stamps H. 30. Troutman R. (G)	7. Amann T. 9. Herrera J. 15. Jauregui R. 14. Kimbrough D. 99. Mazzola J. (G) 3. Viader D. 20. Willey B.
Coaches
Cruz D.	Briggs M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Harris W. ⚽, Morris J. (A),
19', Fernandes L. 🟨,
39', Serrano R. 🟨,
45+2', Portillo J. J. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 3)
46', 2 - 0, Davila T. ⚽, Serrano R. (A),
52', 2 - 1, Ross N. ⚽,
55', 2 - 2, Phillips K. ⚽, Gurr J. (A),
59', 2 - 3, Ross N. ⚽, Gurr J. (A),
62', Morris J. ↓, Dia A. ↑,
62', Davila T. ↓, McCabe N. ↑,
62', Serrano R. ↓, Mares D. ↑,
66', 3 - 3, Wilson J. ⚽, Mares D. (A),
67', Phillips K. 🟨,
69', Dia A. 🟨,
69', Phillips K. ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
77', Wilson J. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
78', Ross N. ↓, Amann T. ↑,
80', Ukaegbu C. 🟨,
86', Parano C. ↓, Jauregui R. ↑,
88', McFadden A. 🟨,
90+2', Adams K. 🟨,
90+4', 4 - 3, Harris W. ⚽,
90+6', McFadden A. ↓, Charpie W. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Sacramento Republic could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Louisville City is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Louisville City won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Louisville City won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
03.08.24	New Mexico United - Louisville City	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.24	Louisville City - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:4 ✺
USL Championship
27.07.24	Louisville City - Monterey Bay	4:1 ✺
19.07.24	Louisville City - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	2:1 ✺
06.07.24	Oakland Roots - Louisville City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLWWL
- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
03.08.24	Sacramento Republic - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0:1 ✺
27.07.24	Detroit City - Sacramento Republic	0:1 ✺
21.07.24	Oakland Roots - Sacramento Republic	2:5 ✺
13.07.24	Sacramento Republic - North Carolina	0:0 ✺
US Open Cup
09.07.24	Sacramento Republic - Seattle Sounders	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
01.04.23	Sacramento Republic - Louisville City	5:0
03.09.22	Louisville City - Sacramento Republic	3:1

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