Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 19 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Referee: Minakovic N. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lugano		Paphos

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.4	3.2
	2.15	3.3	3
	2.3	3.4	3
	2.29	3.46	3.3
	2.16	3.52	3.13	Watch
	2.2	3.3	2.9
	2.27	3.67	3.1
	2.3	3.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.16)	3.43 ↓ (3.49)	3.08 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
42%

Draw
27.4%

Paphos
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

27%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

26.8%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Paphos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.9%	26.3%	15.8%

Lugano - Paphos Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Lugano will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). Paphos will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lugano: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saipi A. (G) 46. Zanotti M. 6. Papadopoulos A. 5. Hajdari A. 23. Valenzuela M. 8. Grgic A. 11. Steffen R. 29. Belhadj M. 25. Bislimi U. 18. Mahou H. 10. Bottani M. (C)	93. Michail N. (G) 77. Correia J. 23. Luckassen D. 5. Goldar D. 45. Rafael Pontelo 88. Pepe 22. Tankovic M. (C) 30. Dragomir V. 26. Sunjic I. 7. Bruno 33. Anderson Silva
Substitutes
2. Brault-Guillard Z. 21. Cimignani Y. 27. Dos Santos D. 20. Doumbia O. 22. El Wafi A. 17. Mai L. 26. Marques M. 13. Ndiaye C. (G) 58. Osigwe S. (G) 93. Przybylko K. 9. Vladi S.	70. Ilia M. 1. Ivusic I. (G) 10. Jairo 11. Jaja 9. Leo Natel 25. Name M. 2. Pileas K. 8. Quina D. 19. Silva J. 83. Theodoulou P. (G)
Coaches
Croci-Torti M.	Carcedo J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Saipi A. (Own goal), Pepe (A),
7', 1 - 1, Belhadj M. ⚽, Zanotti M. (A),
26', Tankovic M. 🟨,
29', Correia J. 🟨,
33', 2 - 1, Bottani M. ⚽,
45+1', Bottani M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Mahou H. ↓, Doumbia O. ↑,
67', Rafael Pontelo ↓, Pileas K. ↑,
67', Anderson Silva ↓, Jairo ↑,
67', Sunjic I. ↓, Quina D. ↑,
70', Bislimi U. 🟨,
73', Bottani M. ↓, Przybylko K. ↑,
74', Luckassen D. 🟨,
79', Bruno ↓, Leo Natel ↑,
79', Pepe ↓, Jaja ↑,
90+1', Valenzuela M. ↓, Marques M. ↑,
90+1', Steffen R. ↓, El Wafi A. ↑,
90+1', Belhadj M. ↓, Dos Santos D. ↑,
90+1', Belhadj M. 🟨,
90+4', Grgic A. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 2, Goldar D. ⚽, Tankovic M. (A),

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stockhorn Arena.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Paphos could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Lugano have a series of guest games.

Lugano will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lugano: Aliseda I. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Lugano: Babic B. (Injury) Ryter Y. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
15.12.24	Lugano - Lausanne-Sport	1:4 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.12.24	Legia Warsaw - Lugano	1:2 ✺
Swiss Super League
07.12.24	Luzern - Lugano	1:4 ✺
Swiss Cup
04.12.24	Yverdon - Lugano	0:2 ✺
Swiss Super League
01.12.24	Servette - Lugano	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWWWL
- Paphos FC
Cypriot First Division
16.12.24	Nea Salamis - Paphos	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.12.24	Paphos - Celje	2:0 ✺
Cypriot First Division
08.12.24	Ethnikos Achna - Paphos	0:2 ✺
02.12.24	Paphos - Omonia	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	Fiorentina - Paphos	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWWLL

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