Match Info

Championship - Round 42

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Webb D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+


	Luton Town		Blackburn Rovers

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	4.33	Watch
	1.78	3.5	4.8
	1.88	3.37	4.45	Watch
	1.89	3.37	4.46	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.8
	1.9	3.44	4.25	Watch
	1.88	3.37	4.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.14)	3.39 (3.39)	4.51 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
51.1%

Draw
27.9%

Blackburn Rovers
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

27.8%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

28.5%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luton Town's performance.

Blackburn Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Blackburn Rovers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luton Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Blackburn Rovers than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Blackburn Rovers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
96.1%	1.3%	2.6%

Luton Town - Blackburn Rovers Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Blackburn (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Luton (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Luton (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Luton Town will win (73 of 76 users predict this - 96.05%).
Confidence interval (95%): 91.67% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luton Town will win (38 of 38 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 41 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 40 - 97.6%). Blackburn (votes: 1 - 2.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Kaminski T. (G) 28. Makosso C. 6. McGuinness M. 3. Bell A. 25. Jones I. 20. Walsh L. 18. Clark J. 8. Aasgaard T. 21. Miller M. 14. Chong T. 9. Morris C. (C)	12. Toth B. (G) 51. Montgomery K. 15. Batth D. 5. Hyam D. 4. Ribeiro Y. 6. Tronstad S. 27. Travis L. (C) 10. Dolan T. 8. Cantwell T. 19. Hedges R. 23. Ohashi Y.
Substitutes
47. Bowler J. 16. Burke R. 22. Dabo L. 23. Krul T. (G) 15. Mengi T. 12. Naismith K. 13. Nakamba M. 37. Nelson Z. 44. Nordas L.	21. Buckley J. 33. Cozier-Duberry A. 28. Forshaw A. 9. Gueye M. 38. Michalski N. (G) 3. Pickering H. 11. Rankin-Costello J. 31. Sanderson D. 32. Tyjon I.
Coaches
Bloomfield M.	Ismael V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Travis L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Montgomery K. 🟨,
52', 0 - 1, Ohashi Y. ⚽, Hedges R. (A),
56', Makosso C. ↓, Mengi T. ↑,
56', Jones I. ↓, Burke R. ↑,
56', Chong T. ↓, Bowler J. ↑,
58', Montgomery K. 🟨,
61', Cantwell T. ↓, Sanderson D. ↑,
66', Hedges R. ↓, Forshaw A. ↑,
67', Dolan T. 🟨,
73', Walsh L. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,
73', Mengi T. 🟨,
78', Ohashi Y. ↓, Gueye M. ↑,
85', Morris C. ↓, Nelson Z. ↑,
86', Toth B. 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Luton won 1.

Luton is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Blackburn has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Blackburn could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Luton is a favorite.

There will not play in Luton: Baptiste S. (Muscle Injury) Brown J. (Ankle Injury) Lockyer T. (Ankle Injury) Nakamba M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Blackburn: Beck O. (Hamstring Injury) Brittain C. (Calf Injury) Carter H. (Calf Injury) Dennis E. (Injury) Kargbo A. (Hamstring Injury) Leonard H. (Injury) Weimann A. (Knee Injury) Wharton S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Luton: Doughty A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Blackburn: Rankin-Costello J. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Luton won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11:10 (average 1.2:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Luton won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:3 (average 1.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League Championship
08.04.25	Stoke City - Luton Town	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Luton Town - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Hull City - Luton Town	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Luton Town - Middlesbrough	0:0 ✺
11.03.25	Cardiff City - Luton Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 TTWTW
- Blackburn Rovers
English League Championship
08.04.25	Blackburn Rovers - Sheffield Wednesday	2:2 ✺
04.04.25	Blackburn Rovers - Middlesbrough	0:2 ✺
29.03.25	Portsmouth - Blackburn Rovers	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Blackburn Rovers - Cardiff City	1:2 ✺
12.03.25	Stoke City - Blackburn Rovers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
14.12.24	Blackburn Rovers - Luton Town	2:0
01.05.23	Blackburn Rovers - Luton Town	1:1
17.09.22	Luton Town - Blackburn Rovers	2:0
29.01.22	Luton Town - Blackburn Rovers	0:0
11.09.21	Blackburn Rovers - Luton Town	2:2
30.01.21	Blackburn Rovers - Luton Town	1:0
21.11.20	Luton Town - Blackburn Rovers	1:1

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