Match Info

Championship - Round 41

Date: 8 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Whitestone D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Stoke City		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.25	2.9	Watch
	2.4	3.2	3
	2.46	3.05	3.14	Watch
	2.44	3.11	3.13	Watch
	2.45	3.1	3
	2.42	3.18	3.08	Watch
	2.46	3.05	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.18)	3.13 ↓ (3.48)	3.06 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stoke City
38.9%

Draw
30.2%

Luton Town
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

27.2%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

28.5%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stoke City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	21.1%	5.3%

Stoke City - Luton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Luton will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stoke: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Stoke (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Johansson V. (C) 22. Tchamadeu J. 26. Phillips A. 16. Wilmot B. 17. Bocat E. 15. Thompson J. 6. Burger W. 42. Manhoef M. 8. Baker L. 10. Bae J. 20. Gallagher S.	24. Kaminski T. (G) 28. Makosso C. 6. McGuinness M. 3. Bell A. 25. Jones I. 20. Walsh L. 8. Aasgaard T. 18. Clark J. 45. Doughty A. 9. Morris C. (C) 14. Chong T.
Substitutes
9. Al Hamadi A. 13. Bonham J. (G) 23. Gibson B. 2. Gooch L. 11. Koumas L. 19. Mmaee R. 24. Moran A. 4. Pearson B. 12. Seko T.	21. Alli M. 47. Bowler J. 16. Burke R. 22. Dabo L. 23. Krul T. (G) 15. Mengi T. 12. Naismith K. 37. Nelson Z. 44. Nordas L.
Coaches
Robins M.	Bloomfield M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', McGuinness M. 🟨,
17', Doughty A. ↓, Alli M. ↑,
42', Morris C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', Tchamadeu J. 🟨,
50', Bae J. 🟨,
62', Thompson J. ↓, Pearson B. ↑,
62', Manhoef M. ↓, Al Hamadi A. ↑,
70', Walsh L. ↓, Dabo L. ↑,
70', Morris C. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,
71', Makosso C. ↓, Burke R. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Baker L. ⚽,
82', Chong T. ↓, Bowler J. ↑,
86', Gallagher S. ↓, Koumas L. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 1, Alli M. ⚽, Clark J. (A),

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 20 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stoke won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Stoke: Sidibe S. (Muscle Injury) Stevens E. (Injury)

There will not play in Luton: Baptiste S. (Muscle Injury) Brown J. (Ankle Injury) Lockyer T. (Ankle Injury) Mengi T. (Groin Injury) Nakamba M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Stoke: Burger W. (Injury) Wilson-Esbrand J. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Luton: Adebayo E. (Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Stoke won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16:7 (average 1.6:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Stoke won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:2 (average 2.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stoke City
English League Championship
05.04.25	Preston North End - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Stoke City - Queens Park Rangers	3:1 ✺
15.03.25	Millwall - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
12.03.25	Stoke City - Blackburn Rovers	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Coventry City - Stoke City	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWLWL
- Luton Town
English League Championship
05.04.25	Luton Town - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Hull City - Luton Town	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Luton Town - Middlesbrough	0:0 ✺
11.03.25	Cardiff City - Luton Town	1:2 ✺
08.03.25	Burnley - Luton Town	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
10.12.24	Luton Town - Stoke City	2:1
04.02.23	Luton Town - Stoke City	1:0
08.11.22	Stoke City - Luton Town	2:0
23.02.22	Stoke City - Luton Town	1:2
06.11.21	Luton Town - Stoke City	0:1
20.02.21	Stoke City - Luton Town	3:0
17.10.20	Luton Town - Stoke City	0:2

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