Match Info

ENGLAND: PREMIER LEAGUE - ROUND 22

Date: 30 January 2024, Tuesday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Australia	Optus Sport
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Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 5
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Sport
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Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Eleven Sports 4
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Luton Town		Brighton & Hove Albion

	1	X	2
	4.2	4.2	1.75
	4.2	4	1.77
	4.35	4.1	1.8
	4.25	4	1.8
	4.41	4.07	1.79
	4	4	1.73
	4.45	4.16	1.82	Watch
	4.3	4.1	1.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.27 ↓ (4.88)	4.08 ↓ (4.34)	1.78 ↑ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
22.5%

Draw
23.6%

Brighton & Hove Albion
53.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.6%

22%

58.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.8%

22.9%

60.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Brighton & Hove Albion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brighton & Hove Albion than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brighton & Hove Albion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.7%	16.7%	71.7%

Luton Town - Brighton & Hove Albion Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 7 - 11.7%). Brighton & Hove will win (votes: 43 - 71.7%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brighton & Hove: 60.3% – 83.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Kaminski T. (G) 16. Burke R. 2. Osho G. 29. Bell A. 7. Ogbene C. 28. Lokonga A. S. 6. Barkley R. 45. Doughty A. 18. Clark J. 11. Adebayo E. 9. Morris C. (C)	23. Steele J. (G) 29. van Hecke J. P. 5. Dunk L. (C) 3. Igor 30. Estupinan P. 13. Gross P. 11. Gilmour B. 6. Milner J. 40. Buonanotte F. 18. Welbeck D. 9. Joao Pedro
Substitutes
8. Berry L. 14. Chong T. 38. Johnson J. 23. Krul T. (G) 17. Mpanzu P. 43. Nelson Z. 3. Potts D. 30. Townsend A. 10. Woodrow C.	47. Baker-Boaitey B. 20. Baleba C. 28. Ferguson E. 41. Hinshelwood J. 14. Lallana A. 2. Lamptey T. 15. Moder J. 1. Verbruggen B. (G) 4. Webster A.
Coaches
Edwards R.	De Zerbi R.

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 7).

Recent matches Luton is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Brighton & Hove is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Brighton & Hove is a favorite.

There will not play in Luton: Andersen M. (Calf Injury) Kabore I. (National selection) Lockyer T. (Heart Problems) Nakamba M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Brighton & Hove: Adingra S. (National selection) Enciso J. (Knee Injury) Fati A. (Calf Injury) March S. (Knee Injury) Mitoma K. (National selection) Veltman J. (Knee Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Luton won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English FA Cup
27.01.24	Everton - Luton Town	1:2 ✺
16.01.24	Bolton Wanderers - Luton Town	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
12.01.24	Burnley - Luton Town	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
07.01.24	Luton Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
English Premier League
30.12.23	Luton Town - Chelsea	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 WWTTL
- Brighton & Hove Albion
English FA Cup
27.01.24	Sheffield United - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:5 ✺
English Premier League
22.01.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Wolverhampton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
06.01.24	Stoke City - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:4 ✺
English Premier League
02.01.24	West Ham United - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:0 ✺
28.12.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Tottenham Hotspur	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
12.08.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Luton Town	4:1
Club Friendly
23.07.16	Brighton & Hove Albion - Luton Town	1:2

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