Match Info

ENGLAND: PREMIER LEAGUE - ROUND 20

Date: 30 December 2023, Saturday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Tierney P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Optus Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Brazil	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Urheilu
Germany	Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top event
Greece	Nova Sports
India	STAR Sports Select 1
Malaysia	Astro
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Romania	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Turkey	beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	TNT Sports
World	Setanta Sports Eurasia


	Luton Town		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.5	1.5
	5.5	4.4	1.55
	5.3	4.55	1.6	Watch
	5.93	4.63	1.55
	5.93	4.63	1.55
	5.5	4.2	1.53
	5.8	4.5	1.54	Watch
	5.6	4.6	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.66 ↑ (5.12)	4.5 ↑ (4.13)	1.55 ↓ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

Watch this match and English Premier League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: USA Network

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
16.9%

Draw
21.3%

Chelsea
61.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.6%

23%

58.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.1%

22.3%

60.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.2%	6.9%	56.9%

Luton Town - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 58 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 21 - 36.2%). Chelsea will win (votes: 33 - 56.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 6.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 44.2% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Kaminski T. (G) 15. Mengi T. 2. Osho G. 29. Bell A. (C) 12. Kabore I. 28. Lokonga A. S. 6. Barkley R. 45. Doughty A. 30. Townsend A. 19. Brown J. 11. Adebayo E.	28. Petrovic D. (G) 27. Gusto M. 2. Disasi A. 6. Silva T. 26. Colwill L. 23. Gallagher C. (C) 25. Caicedo M. 11. Madueke N. 20. Palmer C. 15. Jackson N. 19. Broja A.
Substitutes
5. Andersen M. 14. Chong T. 18. Clark J. 26. Giles R. 23. Krul T. (G) 9. Morris C. 17. Mpanzu P. 7. Ogbene C. 10. Woodrow C.	47. Bergstrom L. (G) 13. Bettinelli M. (G) 8. Fernandez E. 42. Gilchrist A. 29. Maatsen I. 52. Matos A. 10. Mudryk M. 18. Nkunku C. 7. Sterling R.
Coaches
Edwards R.	Pochettino M.

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 10).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Luton could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Chelsea is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Luton won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Luton won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English Premier League
26.12.23	Sheffield United - Luton Town	2:3 ✺
23.12.23	Luton Town - Newcastle United	1:0 ✺
10.12.23	Luton Town - Manchester City	1:2 ✺
05.12.23	Luton Town - Arsenal	3:4 ✺
02.12.23	Brentford - Luton Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWLLL
- Chelsea
English Premier League
27.12.23	Chelsea - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
24.12.23	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
19.12.23	Chelsea - Newcastle United	2:1 penalties ✺
English Premier League
16.12.23	Chelsea - Sheffield United	2:0 ✺
10.12.23	Everton - Chelsea	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
25.08.23	Chelsea - Luton Town	3:0
English FA Cup
02.03.22	Luton Town - Chelsea	2:3
24.01.21	Chelsea - Luton Town	3:1

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