Match Info

EFL Trophy - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Wright P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Luton Town		Swindon Town

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.62	3.95	4.7	Watch
	1.66	4.11	4.57	Watch
	1.6	3.5	4.6
	1.65	3.86	4.89	Watch
	1.61	3.8	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.53)	3.83 ↑ (3.6)	4.81 ↓ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
56.8%

Draw
24.1%

Swindon Town
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

24.6%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

23.8%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Luton Town - Swindon Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Luton Town will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Shea J. (C) 2. Walters R. 28. Makosso C. 44. Fox H. 17. Lonwijk N. 23. Saville G. 22. Fanne L. 14. Morris S. 37. Nelson Z. 32. Lawrence E. 9. Yates J.	12. Ward L. (G) 5. Wright W. 6. Ball J. 3. Mabete F. 19. Snowdon J. 18. Kilkenny G. 8. Clarke O. (C) 16. Wilson-Brown T. 25. Borland A. 28. Palmer O. 29. Olakigbe M.
Substitutes
35. Archer E. 49. Gawel D. 38. Johnson J. 48. Lorentzen-Jones J. 13. Nakamba M. 45. Paternoster V. 41. Thomas L. (G)	23. Drinan A. 34. Kirkman B. 33. McGregor J. 7. Nichols T. 44. Oldaker D. 1. Ripley C. (G) 11. Tabor J.
Coaches
Wilshere J.	Holloway I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Yates J. (Penalty Awarded),
22', Mabete F. 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Wright W. ⚽, Olakigbe M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Palmer O. ↓, Drinan A. ↑,
46', Wilson-Brown T. ↓, Kirkman B. ↑,
46', Snowdon J. ↓, McGregor J. ↑,
53', 1 - 2, Mabete F. ⚽,
60', McGregor J. 🟨,
71', Fanne L. ↓, Nakamba M. ↑,
71', Lawrence E. ↓, Johnson J. ↑,
77', Clarke O. ↓, Nichols T. ↑,
78', Walters R. 🟨,
80', Olakigbe M. ↓, Oldaker D. ↑,
87', Saville G. ↓, Gawel D. ↑,
90+8', Archer E. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Luton have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Swindon is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Swindon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Luton is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Luton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 2.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.5:2.5).

Outrights of English EFL Trophy for now

Luton: 5.84% Swindon: 0.64%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League One
10.01.26	Luton Town - Stevenage Borough	2:1 ✺
01.01.26	Exeter City - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
29.12.25	Luton Town - Leyton Orient	3:0 ✺
26.12.25	Luton Town - Wycombe Wanderers	4:0 ✺
18.12.25	Reading - Luton Town	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLWWL
- Swindon Town
English League Two
01.01.26	Swindon Town - Gillingham	2:0 ✺
29.12.25	Cheltenham Town - Swindon Town	0:2 ✺
26.12.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Swindon Town - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Bristol Rovers - Swindon Town	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
26.12.17	Swindon Town - Luton Town	0:5
09.09.17	Luton Town - Swindon Town	0:3
English EFL Trophy
06.12.16	Swindon Town - Luton Town	2:3
English League Cup
12.08.14	Luton Town - Swindon Town	1:2

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