Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 21

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga)

Referee: Mallo E. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DSports 6
Ecuador	DSports 6
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Uruguay	DSports 6


	Málaga		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.4	3.5	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.25
	2.08	3.25	3.45	Watch
	2.08	3.28	3.73	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.6
	2.14	3.31	3.66	Watch
	2.08	3.2	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.16)	3.25 ↓ (3.33)	3.55 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
45%

Draw
28.7%

Ceuta
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

28.4%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

28.7%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.2%	16.1%	9.7%

Málaga - Ceuta Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 23 - 74.2%). Ceuta will win (votes: 3 - 9.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 58.8% – 89.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1 - Málaga (3.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Málaga will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Málaga (votes: 14 - 93.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrero A. (C) 3. Puga C. 16. Murillo D. 4. Galilea E. 31. Rafita 10. Larrubia D. 23. Merino I. 22. Lorenzo D. 11. Munoz J. 9. Chupe 12. Dotor C.	13. Vallejo G. (G) 23. Anuar 6. Hernandez C. (C) 15. Gonzalez D. 3. Matos Jose 19. Jamelli 5. Youness 10. Rodriguez C. 7. Ahmed A. 8. Zalazar K. 22. Kone K.
Substitutes
7. Abaida H. 2. Gabilondo J. 17. Jauregi E. 8. Juanpe 24. Lobete J. 13. Lopez C. (G) 20. Montero J. 21. Nino A. 35. Ochoa A. 36. Recio A. 37. Rodriguez R.	17. Almenara G. 26. Bassinga A. 14. Bodiger Y. 24. Cantero Y. 4. Caparros A. 18. de la Fuente K. 27. Domenech M. 20. Escudero A. 1. Lopez P. (G) 11. Ortuno J. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 25. Sanchez S.
Coaches
Funes J.	Romero J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Zalazar K. ⚽, Rodriguez C. (A),
6', Lorenzo D. 🟨,
19', Zalazar K. 🟨,
26', Jamelli ↓, Bodiger Y. ↑,
43', 1 - 1, Chupe (Penalty Awarded),
45+1', 2 - 1, Chupe ⚽,
45+4', Gonzalez D. 🟨,
45+6', Dotor C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Ahmed A. ↓, Bassinga A. ↑,
65', Dotor C. ↓, Ochoa A. ↑,
65', Youness ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
65', Rodriguez C. ↓, Domenech M. ↑,
71', Chupe (Penalty Awarded),
78', Lorenzo D. ↓, Nino A. ↑,
78', Munoz J. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
78', Kone K. ↓, Ortuno J. ↑,
85', Larrubia D. ↓, Abaida H. ↑,
85', Chupe ↓, Lobete J. ↑,
87', Rodriguez R. 🟨,
90+1', Ochoa A. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 10 and 8)

Málaga has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Ceuta has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ceuta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Málaga will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Málaga: Brasanac D. (Knee Injury) Diarra M. (Knee Injury) Dorrio J. (Muscle Injury) Enriquez R. (Knee Injury) Luismi (Face Injury) Pastor A. (Knee Injury) Sanchez D. (Injury)

There will not play in Ceuta: Fernandez Sanchez M. (Knee Injury) Sanchez M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Málaga: Larrubia D. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Málaga won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
21	Ceuta	9	1	2	6	8:20	-12	5

Last Results with these Odds

Málaga - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 43.78%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Málaga - Telstar	Canceled ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
04.01.26	Sporting de Gijón - Málaga	1:3 ✺
21.12.25	Málaga - Almería	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Albacete Balompié - Málaga	1:3 ✺
08.12.25	Málaga - Zaragoza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 ?WWWT
- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
04.01.26	Ceuta - FC Andorra	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Real Sociedad B - Ceuta	1:3 ✺
14.12.25	Ceuta - Las Palmas	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Granada - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.12.25	CD Guadalajara - Ceuta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
07.04.24	Málaga - Ceuta	1:1
14.01.24	Ceuta - Málaga	3:2

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