Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 15

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Mérida AD		Ourense CF

	1	X	2
	1.91	3	3.7
	2.12	3.05	3.35
	2.25	3.1	3.55
	2.22	3.22	3.25	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.1
	2.14	3.02	3.32
	2.12	2.9	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.94)	3.03 ↓ (3.29)	3.38 ↓ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
42.9%

Draw
30.2%

Ourense CF
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

28.3%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

28.5%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Ourense CF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mérida AD, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Mérida AD - Ourense CF Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mérida AD will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Ourense CF will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ourense CF (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 20. Jacobo R. 4. Pareja L. 15. Martinez G. 23. Verges E. 10. Doncel C. 21. Beneit R. (C) 8. Solar M. 18. Dibrani B. 14. Artola J. 9. Garcia A.	1. Raton A. (G) 2. Coto E. 5. Prado M. 12. Jelbat A. 3. Sanz H. (C) 21. Guerrero A. 22. Yuste A. 8. Ramos J. 17. Ouhdadi O. 7. Bouzaig A. 6. Castillo N.
Substitutes
11. Areso J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 5. Dominguez J. 26. Gil A. (G) 6. Miki 24. Pereira R. 19. Pipe 22. Rivas M.	11. Aranzabe A. 10. Camus M. 26. Comas O. 19. Garcia D. 20. Gueye L. 24. Moreno C. 16. Munoz D. 14. Perez A. 23. Punzano I. 18. Rabadan D. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 9. Vazquez K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Pareja L. ⚽,
24', 1 - 1, Guerrero A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
52', 🟨,
54', Doncel C. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
63', Ramos J. ↓, Munoz D. ↑,
63', Solar M. ↓, Capitas M. ↑,
66', Garcia A. 🟨,
68', Dibrani B. 🟨,
71', 2 - 1, Verges E. ⚽,
74', Prado M. 🟨,
75', 🟨,
77', Castillo N. ↓, Camus M. ↑,
77', Guerrero A. ↓, Punzano I. ↑,
84', Ouhdadi O. ↓, Moreno C. ↑,
84', Prado M. ↓, Vazquez K. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Csenterics A. (Own goal),
90+6', 3 - 2, Garcia A. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 12).

Mérida AD is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ourense CF is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ourense CF may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mérida AD is considered a favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.11.25	Ferrol - Mérida AD	2:2 ✺
22.11.25	Mérida AD - Real Avilés	2:1 ✺
15.11.25	Pontevedra - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Mérida AD	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 TWTWW
- Ourense CF
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.12.25	Ourense CF - Girona	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.11.25	Ourense CF - Unionistas de Salamanca	4:3 ✺
22.11.25	Arenteiro - Ourense CF	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Ourense CF - CD Guadalajara	3:0 ✺
12.11.25	Zamora - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.2 WWWWT

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