Match Info

NETHERLANDS: EERSTE DIVISIE - ROUND 26

Date: 27 February 2023, Monday

Location: De Geusselt (Maastricht)

Referee: Martens R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	MVV Maastricht		Zwolle

	1	X	2
	6	5	1.4
	5.5	5.25	1.4
	5.75	5.1	1.42
	6.22	5.27	1.45
	6	4.6	1.4
	5.9	5.3	1.43	Watch
	5.6	5.2	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.85 ↑ (4.63)	5.1 ↑ (4.13)	1.42 ↓ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

MVV Maastricht
15.9%

Draw
18.3%

Zwolle
65.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.9%

22.3%

57.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

22.5%

57.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

MVV Maastricht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Zwolle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Zwolle's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for MVV Maastricht than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zwolle than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Zwolle, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.3%	5.3%	68.4%

MVV Maastricht - Zwolle Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Maastricht will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). Zwolle will win (votes: 13 - 68.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zwolle: 47.5% – 89.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Relegation) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie).

Maastricht is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Zwolle is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Zwolle could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Zwolle is absolute favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Maastricht won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MVV Maastricht
Dutch Eerste Divisie
20.02.23	Jong Ajax - MVV Maastricht	4:2 ✺
13.02.23	MVV Maastricht - Heracles Almelo	0:2 ✺
10.02.23	MVV Maastricht - FC Oss	5:1 ✺
05.02.23	Roda - MVV Maastricht	2:1 ✺
27.01.23	Den Bosch - MVV Maastricht	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWLT
- PEC Zwolle
Dutch Eerste Divisie
17.02.23	ADO Den Haag - Zwolle	3:1 ✺
10.02.23	Zwolle - Jong AZ Alkmaar	4:1 ✺
06.02.23	Jong Ajax - Zwolle	0:0 ✺
30.01.23	Roda - Zwolle	1:2 ✺
27.01.23	Zwolle - FC Oss	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
28.10.22	Zwolle - MVV Maastricht	0:1
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.12.21	Zwolle - MVV Maastricht	4:0

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