Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Burda M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	Tring Sport 4
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	MBC Action
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	RTL, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Brazil	Canal GOAT
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
China	Migu
Colombia	ESPN 5
Denmark	Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, beIN Sports MAX 6
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, RTL, RTL+, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, Sky Sport News, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
Iceland	Viaplay
India	ZEE5
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Sport TV2
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	RTL, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Peacock
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5
World	OneFootball TV


	Mainz		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	3	3.8	2.2	Watch
	2.87	3.90	2.20
	3	3.8	2.15
	3.04	4.05	2.25
	2.93	4.07	2.25	Watch
	2.95	3.9	2.14
	3.01	3.99	2.31	Watch
	2.95	3.85	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.87)	3.92 ↓ (3.97)	2.22 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mainz
32.3%

Draw
24.4%

Bayer Leverkusen
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

23.9%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

23.8%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	10%	80%

Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 2 - 10%). Bayer will win (votes: 16 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 62.5% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Mainz (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 25%). Bayer (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 0.

Both teams are currently displaying solid and consistent form.

Bayer could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bayer is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Mainz has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:38 (averaging 1.2:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mainz against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses, with 14:25 goals (averaging 1.4:2.5 per game).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.01% Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7
7	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7

Last Results with these Odds

Mainz - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 33.1%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Waldhof Mannheim - Mainz	0:3
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	3:4 ✺
12.09.26	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:3 ✺
06.09.26	Hamburger SV - Mainz	0:5 ✺
29.08.26	Mainz - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLWT
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
20.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Celje	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
29.08.26	Elversberg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
28.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:1
18.10.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4
17.05.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2
14.01.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:0
23.02.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	2:1
30.09.23	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	0:3
19.02.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	2:3

Upcoming Matches