Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 13

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, New World Sport 1, ZAP
Albania	20:30	Tring Sport 2
Angola	20:30	Z Sports 1
Argentina	16:30	Disney+
Armenia	23:30	Setanta Sports 2
Australia	06:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	20:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	23:30	Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	20:30	Play Sports 1
Brazil	16:30	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	21:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	14:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
China	03:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	20:30	SportKlub 3
Czech Republic	20:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	20:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	21:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	20:30	New World TV
Georgia	23:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	20:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	21:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	03:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	20:30	Arena 4
Iceland	19:30	Viaplay
Indonesia	02:30	MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	21:30	Sport 1
Japan	04:30	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	01:30	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	20:30	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	01:30	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	02:30	beIN Connect
Malta	20:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	13:30	Sky Sport
Moldova	21:30	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	20:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	08:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	20:30	Viaplay
Pakistan	00:30	Tapmad
Peru	14:30	Disney+
Philippines	03:30	beIN Connect
Poland	20:30	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	19:30	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	21:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	22:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	22:30	Shahid
Serbia	20:30	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	20:30	Sport TV2, Voyo
South Korea	04:30	Coupang Play
Spain	20:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	20:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Tajikistan	00:30	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	02:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	22:30	S Sport+
Turkmenistan	00:30	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	21:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United Kingdom	19:30	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport
Uruguay	16:30	Disney+
Usa	14:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	00:30	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	15:30	Disney+
Vietnam	02:30	TV 360
International	19:30	Onefootball


	Mainz		Borussia Mönchengladbach

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.3	2.5	Watch
	2.78	3.35	2.58	Watch
	2.79	3.5	2.63
	2.75	3.51	2.5	Watch
	2.63	3.3	2.5
	2.72	3.52	2.64	Watch
	2.75	3.4	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.2)	3.41 ↓ (3.63)	2.56 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
34.9%

Draw
27.9%

Borussia Mönchengladbach
37.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.2%

26.2%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

27.3%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mainz's form might have worsened.

Borussia Mönchengladbach has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mainz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Mönchengladbach than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Borussia Mönchengladbach, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.5%	30.6%	44.9%

Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 12 - 25.5%). Borussia M will win (votes: 21 - 44.7%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 29.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia M: 30.5% – 58.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Borussia M (votes: 11 - 57.9%). Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Borussia M (1.45) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH 0 - Borussia M (1.85) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 4 - 15.4%). Borussia M (votes: 17 - 65.4%). Tie (votes: 5 - 19.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 5. Leitsch M. 30. Widmer S. (C) 10. Amiri N. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 6. Sano K. 2. Mwene P. 44. Weiper N. 36. Moreno Fell F.	33. Nicolas M. (G) 29. Scally J. 30. Elvedi N. 4. Diks K. 17. Castrop J. 27. Reitz R. (C) 6. Engelhardt Y. 13. Reyna G. 20. Netz L. 18. Machino S. 15. Tabakovic H.
Substitutes
16. Bell S. 14. Boving W. 17. Hollerbach B. 24. Kawasaki S. 15. Maloney L. 9. Nordin A. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 22. Veratschnig N.	22. Fraulo O. 5. Friedrich M. 34. Herrmann C. 36. Mohya W. 42. Pereira Cardoso T. (G) 28. Ranos G. 7. Stoger K. 39. Swider N. 26. Ullrich L.
Coaches
Hoffmann B.	Polanski E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Scally J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', 0 - 1, da Costa D. (Own goal), Tabakovic H. (A),
66', Mwene P. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
69', Reyna G. ↓, Stoger K. ↑,
77', Widmer S. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
77', Moreno Fell F. ↓, Hollerbach B. ↑,
79', Machino S. ↓, Ranos G. ↑,
88', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
90+1', Castrop J. ↓, Friedrich M. ↑,
90+1', Veratschnig N. 🟨,
90+3', Hanche-Olsen A. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 2.

Mainz is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Borussia M is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mainz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Borussia M has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card) Nebel P. (Red Card) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Borussia M: Chiarodia F. C. (Thigh Injury) Hack R. (Knee Injury) Honorat F. (Calf Injury) Kleindienst T. (Knee Injury) Neuhaus F. (Muscle Injury) Ngoumou N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Sander P. (Muscle Injury) Urbich J. (Illness)

There are questionable in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:29. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
30.11.25	Freiburg - Mainz	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Universitatea Craiova - Mainz	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.11.25	Mainz - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Mainz - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTLW
- Borussia Mönchengladbach
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
28.11.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - RB Leipzig	0:0 ✺
22.11.25	Heidenheim - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
13.11.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Lierse	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
08.11.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Köln	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
07.03.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	1:3
25.10.24	Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1
02.03.24	Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1
06.10.23	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	2:2
24.02.23	Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	4:0
04.09.22	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	0:1
03.04.22	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	1:1

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