Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 15

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	11:30	Disney+
Armenia	18:30	Setanta Sports 1
Australia	01:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	18:30	Setanta Sports 1
Brazil	11:30	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	16:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	11:30	Disney+
China	22:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	09:30	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 1
Czech Republic	15:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	15:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic, Go3 Sport Open Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
Georgia	18:30	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	15:30	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports Start
Hong Kong	22:30	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	15:30	Arena 4
Iceland	14:30	Viaplay
India	20:00	Vision+
Indonesia	21:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	16:30	Sport 3
Italy	15:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
Japan	23:30	DAZN Japan
Kyrgyzstan	20:30	Setanta Sports 1
Laos	21:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	22:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	15:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	08:30	Sky Sport
Moldova	16:30	Setanta Sports 1
Mongolia	22:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	15:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	19:30	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	00:30	TVWan Sports
Peru	09:30	Disney+, Fox Sports
Philippines	22:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	15:30	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	14:30	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	17:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	17:30	Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	22:30	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	15:30	Voyo
Slovenia	15:30	Sport TV1
South America	—	ESPN 5 South
South Korea	23:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	15:30	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	19:30	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	17:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Turkmenistan	19:30	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	16:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
United Kingdom	14:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	11:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	19:30	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	10:30	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	21:30	TV 360
International	14:30	Onefootball


	Mainz		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	4	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.75
	2.02	3.45	3.7	Watch
	1.98	3.52	4.13
	2.02	3.42	3.87	Watch
	2	3.2	3.75	Watch
	2.09	3.49	3.98	Watch
	2	3.33	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.97)	3.39 ↓ (3.48)	3.9 ↑ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
47.4%

Draw
28.2%

St. Pauli
24.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.2%

27.3%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

27.6%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

The chances for St. Pauli have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	4.8%	16.7%

Mainz - St. Pauli Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Mainz will win (33 of 42 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.16% – 90.98%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mainz will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Batz D. (G) 31. Kohr D. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 48. Potulski K. 21. da Costa D. 6. Sano K. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 10. Amiri N. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 17. Hollerbach B.	22. Vasilj N. (G) 25. Dzwigala A. 5. Wahl H. 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 6. Sands J. 23. Oppie L. 16. Fujita J. 7. Irvine J. (C) 27. Hountondji A. 28. Pereira Lage M.
Substitutes
16. Bell S. 14. Boving W. 15. Maloney L. 36. Moreno Fell F. 9. Nordin A. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N.	20. Ahlstrand E. 9. Ceesay A. 26. Jones R.J. 24. Metcalfe C. 21. Ritzka L. 34. Robatsch J. 2. Saliakas M. 10. Sinani D. 1. Voll B. A. (G)
Coaches
Fischer U.	Blessin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Sano K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Hountondji A. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
62', Pereira Lage M. 🟨,
74', Oppie L. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
78', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
79', Widmer S. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
90', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Sinani D. ↑,
90+1', Amiri N. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mainz could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Leitsch M. (Muscle Injury) Mwene P. (Muscle Injury) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in St. Pauli: Nemeth D. (Groin Injury) Smith E. (Red Card)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Mainz won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Mainz - Samsunspor	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.12.25	Bayern Munich - Mainz	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Lech Poznań - Mainz	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
05.12.25	Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Freiburg - Mainz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WTTLL
- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
13.12.25	St. Pauli - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Köln - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.11.25	Bayern Munich - St. Pauli	3:1 ✺
23.11.25	St. Pauli - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
22.02.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	2:0
05.10.24	St. Pauli - Mainz	0:3

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