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Mainz - St. Pauli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • Bundesliga - Round 15
  • Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday
  • Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)
  • Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Mainz St. Pauli
    Mainz St. Pauli
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.01 ↑
    (1.97)    		 3.39 ↓
    (3.48)    		 3.9 ↑
    (3.87)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

    • The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Mainz
    47.4%    		Draw
    28.2%    		St. Pauli
    24.5%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    48.2% 27.3% 24.5%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    47.6% 27.6% 24.8%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
  • The chances for St. Pauli have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    78.6% 4.8% 16.7%

    Mainz - St. Pauli Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Mainz will win (33 of 42 users predict this - 78.57%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 66.16% – 90.98%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mainz will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    33. GermanyBatz D. (G)
    31. GermanyKohr D.
    25. NorwayHanche-Olsen A.
    48. PolandPotulski K.
    21. Germanyda Costa D.
      6. JapanSano K.
    30. SwitzerlandWidmer S. (C)
      8. GermanyNebel P.
    10. GermanyAmiri N.
      7. SouthLee Jae-Sung
    17. GermanyHollerbach B.
    		22. BosniaVasilj N. (G)
    25. PolandDzwigala A.
      5. GermanyWahl H.
      3. EstoniaMets K.
    11. PolandPyrka A.
      6. USASands J.
    23. GermanyOppie L.
    16. JapanFujita J.
      7. AustraliaIrvine J. (C)
    27. BeninHountondji A.
    28. FrancePereira Lage M.
    Substitutes
    16. GermanyBell S.
    14. DenmarkBoving W.
    15. USAMaloney L.
    36. GermanyMoreno Fell F.
      9. FranceNordin A.
      1. GermanyRiess L. (G)
    11. GermanySieb A.
    22. AustriaVeratschnig N.
    44. GermanyWeiper N.
    		20. SwedenAhlstrand E.
      9. GambiaCeesay A.
    26. EnglandJones R.J.
    24. AustraliaMetcalfe C.
    21. GermanyRitzka L.
    34. AustriaRobatsch J.
      2. GreeceSaliakas M.
    10. LuxembourgSinani D.
      1. GermanyVoll B. A. (G)
    Coaches
         SwitzerlandFischer U.
    		     GermanyBlessin A.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 32', Sano K. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
    • 58', Hountondji A. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
    • 62', Pereira Lage M. 🟨,
    • 74', Oppie L. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
    • 78', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
    • 79', Widmer S. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
    • 90', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Sinani D. ↑,
    • 90+1', Amiri N. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,

    Preview

  • This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).
  • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
  • Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • Mainz could have a small edge in this match.
  • There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Leitsch M. (Muscle Injury) Mwene P. (Muscle Injury) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)
  • There will not play in St. Pauli: Nemeth D. (Groin Injury) Smith E. (Red Card)
  • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).
  • Including home match between the teams, Mainz won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Mainz 05
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    18.12.25 Mainz - Samsunspor 2:0 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    14.12.25 Bayern Munich - Mainz 2:2 ✺
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    11.12.25 Lech Poznań - Mainz 1:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    05.12.25 Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:1 ✺
    30.11.25 Freiburg - Mainz 4:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2
    WTTLL
    - FC St. Pauli
    German Bundesliga
    13.12.25 St. Pauli - Heidenheim 2:1 ✺
    06.12.25 Köln - St. Pauli 1:1 ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    02.12.25 Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli 1:2 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    29.11.25 Bayern Munich - St. Pauli 3:1 ✺
    23.11.25 St. Pauli - Union Berlin 0:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9
    WTWLL
    Latest Head to Head
    German Bundesliga
    22.02.25 Mainz - St. Pauli 2:0
    05.10.24 St. Pauli - Mainz 0:3
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Mainz 05
    German Bundesliga
    10.10.26 Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen ✺
    - FC St. Pauli
    German 2 Bundesliga
    11.10.26 St. Pauli - Karlsruher ✺

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