Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 14

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Allianz Arena (Munich) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Braun R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	17:30	Tring Sport 2
Angola	17:30	Z Sports 2
Argentina	13:30	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	20:30	Setanta Sports 1
Australia	03:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	17:30	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	20:30	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	17:30	Play Sports 1
Brazil	13:30	RedeTV!, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	18:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	11:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	13:30	ESPN Premium
Colombia	11:30	ESPN
Czech Republic	17:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	17:30	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	18:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	17:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	20:30	Setanta Sports 1, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	17:30	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	18:30	Nova Sports Start
Hong Kong	00:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	17:30	Match 4
Iceland	16:30	Viaplay
Israel	18:30	Sport 4
Italy	17:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	01:30	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	17:30	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	22:30	Setanta Sports 1
Laos	23:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	00:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	17:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	10:30	Sky Sport
Moldova	18:30	Setanta Sports 1
Mongolia	00:30	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	17:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	05:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	17:30	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Pakistan	21:30	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	02:30	TVWan Sports
Peru	11:30	Disney+
Philippines	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	17:30	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	16:30	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	18:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 5
Russia	19:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	19:30	Shahid
Serbia	17:30	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	00:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	17:30	Voyo
Slovenia	17:30	Sport TV1
South America	—	ESPN 2 South
South Korea	01:30	Coupang Play
Spain	17:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	17:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	17:30	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	21:30	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	23:30	beIN Connect
Turkey	19:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Turkmenistan	21:30	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	18:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	16:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	13:30	Disney+
Usa	11:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	21:30	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	12:30	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	23:30	TV 360
International	16:30	Onefootball


	Bayern Munich		Mainz

	1	X	2
	1.09	11	21	Watch
	1.09	10.5	25	Watch
	1.12	11.85	18
	1.11	10.88	17.74	Watch
	1.11	9.5	17	Watch
	1.15	10.4	21	Watch
	1.1	11	20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.11 ↓ (1.12)	10.73 ↑ (9.82)	19.96 ↑ (16.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayern Munich
86.3%

Draw
8.9%

Mainz
4.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

84.6%

9.6%

5.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.4%	8.9%	6.7%

Bayern Munich - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Bayern will win (votes: 38 - 84.4%). Mainz will win (votes: 3 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 8.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 73.8% – 95%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.75 - Mainz (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -5.5 - Bayern (6.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1, 1st Half - Bayern (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayern (votes: 16 - 88.9%). Mainz (votes: 1 - 5.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neuer M. (C) 44. Stanisic J. 3. Kim Min-Jae 21. Ito H. 20. Bischof T. 6. Kimmich J. 8. Goretzka L. 17. Olise M. 42. Karl L. 7. Gnabry S. 9. Kane H.	33. Batz D. (G) 24. Kawasaki S. 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. (C) 48. Potulski K. 22. Veratschnig N. 14. Boving W. 15. Maloney L. 6. Sano K. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 17. Hollerbach B.
Substitutes
19. Davies A. 22. Guerreiro R. 11. Jackson N. 30. Kiala C. 27. Laimer K. 45. Pavlovic A. 4. Tah J. 2. Upamecano D. 40. Urbig J. (G)	37. Bobzien B. 42. Gleiber D. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 36. Moreno Fell F. 9. Nordin A. 1. Riess L. (G) 23. Schopp K. 11. Sieb A. 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Kompany V.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 1 - 0, Karl L. ⚽, Gnabry S. (A),
45+2', 1 - 1, Potulski K. ⚽, Boving W. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', da Costa D. 🟨,
61', Ito H. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
61', Bischof T. ↓, Laimer K. ↑,
61', Goretzka L. ↓, Pavlovic A. ↑,
62', Kawasaki S. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, Bell S. (A),
73', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Jackson N. ↑,
77', Laimer K. 🟨,
78', Hollerbach B. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
83', Davies A. 🟨,
85', Potulski K. 🟨,
87', 2 - 2, Kane H. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 4.

Bayern is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mainz has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Bayern may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bayern is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Bayern: Diaz L. (Yellow Cards) Musiala J. (Broken calfbone)

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card) Mwene P. (Inactive) Nebel P. (Red Card) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Amiri N. (Inactive) Widmer S. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 15 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 66:23. (average 3.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayern won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 44:10. (average 4.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayern Munich
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Bayern Munich - Sporting Lisbon	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Stuttgart - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Union Berlin - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.11.25	Bayern Munich - St. Pauli	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Arsenal - Bayern Munich	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWWL
- Mainz 05
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Lech Poznań - Mainz	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
05.12.25	Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Freiburg - Mainz	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Universitatea Craiova - Mainz	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.11.25	Mainz - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
26.04.25	Bayern Munich - Mainz	3:0
14.12.24	Mainz - Bayern Munich	2:1
German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Mainz - Bayern Munich	0:4
German Bundesliga
09.03.24	Bayern Munich - Mainz	8:1
21.10.23	Mainz - Bayern Munich	1:3
22.04.23	Mainz - Bayern Munich	3:1
German DFB Pokal
01.02.23	Mainz - Bayern Munich	0:4

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