Match Info

Premier League - Round 30

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Old Trafford (Manchester)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Manchester United		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	1.7	4	4.6
	1.78	3.9	4.1
	1.72	4.1	4.7
	1.74	4.15	4.85
	1.75	4.17	4.34	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4.5
	1.75	4.26	4.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.76)	4.05 ↓ (4.36)	4.55 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester United
55.3%

Draw
23.6%

Aston Villa
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

22%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

21.8%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	15.7%	5.7%

Manchester United - Aston Villa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +0.75 - Aston Villa (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Aston Villa (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - draw (3.78) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH -0.5 - Man Utd (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester United will win (55 of 68 users predict this - 80.88%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.53% – 90.23%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester United will win (18 of 22 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 19 - 76%). Aston Villa (votes: 3 - 12%). Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Lammens S. (G) 2. Dalot D. 15. Yoro L. 5. Maguire H. 23. Shaw L. 18. Casemiro 37. Mainoo K. 16. Diallo A. 8. Fernandes B. (C) 10. Cunha M. 19. Mbeumo B.	23. Martinez E. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 4. Konsa E. 5. Mings T. 12. Digne L. 6. Barkley R. 24. Onana A. 27. Rogers M. 7. McGinn J. (C) 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
1. Bayindir A. (G) 39. Fletcher T. 26. Heaven A. 12. Malacia T. 3. Mazraoui N. 7. Mount M. 30. Sesko B. 25. Ugarte M. 11. Zirkzee J.	18. Abraham T. 31. Bailey L. 40. Bizot M. (G) 21. Douglas Luiz 9. Elliott H. 16. Garcia A. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 14. Torres P.
Coaches
Carrick M.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Watkins O. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
53', 1 - 0, Casemiro ⚽, Fernandes B. (A),
60', Casemiro 🟨,
60', Watkins O. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
61', McGinn J. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Barkley R. ⚽,
69', Buendia E. 🟨,
71', 2 - 1, Cunha M. ⚽, Fernandes B. (A),
72', Yoro L. 🟨,
75', Mbeumo B. ↓, Sesko B. ↑,
81', 3 - 1, Sesko B. ⚽,
82', Barkley R. ↓, Douglas Luiz ↑,
82', Digne L. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
86', Buendia E. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
90+1', Casemiro ↓, Ugarte M. ↑,
90+6', Maguire H. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man Utd won 3.

Man Utd is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aston Villa has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Man Utd may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Man Utd is the team to beat.

There will not play in Man Utd: Dorgu P. (Hamstring Injury) de Ligt M. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Kamara B. (Knee Injury) Sancho J. (Loan agreement) Tielemans Y. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Man Utd: Martinez Li. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Cash M. (Knock) Garcia A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Man Utd won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:21. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Man Utd won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 21:11. (average 1.9:1).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Aston Villa: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Manchester Utd	5	1	2	2	8:8	0	5
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4:9	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester United
English Premier League
04.03.26	Newcastle United - Manchester United	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Manchester United - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
23.02.26	Everton - Manchester United	0:1 ✺
10.02.26	West Ham United - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Manchester United - Tottenham Hotspur	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWWTW
- Aston Villa
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Lille - Aston Villa	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
04.03.26	Aston Villa - Chelsea	1:4 ✺
27.02.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Aston Villa - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
21.12.25	Aston Villa - Manchester United	2:1
25.05.25	Manchester United - Aston Villa	2:0
06.10.24	Aston Villa - Manchester United	0:0
11.02.24	Aston Villa - Manchester United	1:2
26.12.23	Manchester United - Aston Villa	3:2
30.04.23	Manchester United - Aston Villa	1:0
English League Cup
10.11.22	Manchester United - Aston Villa	4:2

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