Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 21

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Marítimo (Funchal)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sporting TV


	Marítimo		Farense

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.4	4.5
	1.78	3.35	4.45
	1.79	3.54	5.35
	1.7	3.62	5.01
	1.75	3.2	4.33
	1.75	3.4	4.83	Watch
	1.68	3.5	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.86)	3.43 ↑ (3.28)	4.78 ↑ (4.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marítimo
53.5%

Draw
27.1%

Farense
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

28.1%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

27.1%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Marítimo - Farense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Marítimo (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Marítimo (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Marítimo will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Marítimo (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Samu (C) 2. Igor Juliao 4. Santos Junior E. A. 24. Da Rocha Borges R. 25. Freitas A. 14. Raphael Guzzo 28. Carlos Daniel 98. Ibrahima 10. Tejon M. 3. Butzke A. 21. Bouzaidi S.	99. Araujo B. (G) 4. Alysson 26. Ruben 34. Herrero T. 78. Alex Pinto 20. Semedo Y. 29. Claudio Falcao (C) 6. Derick Poloni 8. Menino M. 9. Carter A. 7. Costa R.
Substitutes
6. Andrade R. 90. Borukov P. 8. Cruz M. 18. Danilovic V. 20. Gomes Aguiar F. T. 9. Melro J. 1. Pastor A. (G) 7. Pena Zauner E. 17. Xavi Grande	17. Candeias A. 43. Dario Miranda 25. Dorregaray D. 21. Jaiminho 77. Matias M. 80. Ndiaye A. 46. Rafael Pontelo 90. Sangare B. 30. Tannander J. (G)
Coaches
Moita M.	Neto P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Alysson 🟨,
40', Raphael Guzzo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Carter A. 🟨,
58', Freitas A. ↓, Xavi Grande ↑,
58', Raphael Guzzo ↓, Cruz M. ↑,
58', Carter A. ↓, Jaiminho ↑,
69', Bouzaidi S. ↓, Gomes Aguiar F. T. ↑,
70', Alex Pinto ↓, Dario Miranda ↑,
70', Menino M. ↓, Matias M. ↑,
79', Carlos Daniel ↓, Danilovic V. ↑,
80', Tejon M. ↓, Elis A. ↑,
81', Ruben 🟨,
83', Costa R. ↓, Sangare B. ↑,
89', Danilovic V. 🟨,
90+3', 0 - 1, Sangare B. ⚽,
90+5', Santos Junior E. A. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marítimo won 2.

Marítimo is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Farense's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Marítimo has had a series of away games.

Marítimo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Marítimo will win today's game, with odds of 1.96.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Marítimo won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Marítimo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.3:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	SC Farense	6	3	2	1	11:5	6	11

Last Results with these Odds

Marítimo - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 49.54%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Marítimo
Portuguese Liga 2
01.02.26	Feirense - Marítimo	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Marítimo - Felgueiras	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Lusitânia - Marítimo	0:4 ✺
11.01.26	Chaves - Marítimo	2:3 ✺
21.12.25	Leixões - Marítimo	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TTWWW
- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
31.01.26	Farense - Porto B	2:3 ✺
25.01.26	Torreense - Farense	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Farense - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Farense - Portimonense	0:1 ✺
28.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Farense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
31.08.25	Farense - Marítimo	0:2
Portuguese League Cup
07.12.22	Farense - Marítimo	2:0
Liga Portugal
10.04.21	Marítimo - Farense	1:0
07.12.20	Farense - Marítimo	2:1
Club Friendly
16.07.19	Marítimo - Farense	0:0
14.07.18	Farense - Marítimo	4:1
Portuguese League Cup
30.10.13	Marítimo - Farense	0:0

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