Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 30

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Marítimo (Funchal)

Referee: Brazao M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Marítimo		Mafra

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.7
	1.75	3.3	3.9
	1.96	3.35	3.8
	2.02	3.32	4.21
	1.96	3.26	4.02
	1.83	3.3	4
	1.96	3.42	3.88	Watch
	1.96	3.35	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.68)	3.34 ↓ (3.65)	3.91 ↓ (4.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marítimo
48.4%

Draw
27.9%

Mafra
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

25.5%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

24.5%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marítimo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marítimo's form might have worsened.

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marítimo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mafra, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Marítimo - Mafra Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Marítimo will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Mafra will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mafra (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Tabuaco G. (G) 21. Domingos T. 4. Santos Junior E. A. 5. Madsen N. 45. Fabio China (C) 98. Ibrahima 77. Franca F. 29. Patrick 48. Michel Costa 7. Blanco F. 15. Guedes A.	1. Fraisl M. (C) 4. Passi B. 32. Rodrigo Freitas 66. Capitao D. 14. Alves K. 80. Goncalves V. 8. Lucas Gabriel 5. Beni D. 9. Nibe A. 90. Etim F. 95. Rochez B.
Substitutes
46. Benchi D. 16. Carlos Daniel 44. Correia R. 18. Danilovic V. 25. Freitas A. 71. Pena Zauner E. 1. Samu (G) 8. Silva P. A. C. 79. Tavares M.	60. Barros G. 3. Chriso 16. Djabi A. 10. Fale M. 19. Iheanacho S. 17. Kolawole J. 7. Matos R. 30. Ugboh M. (G)
Coaches
Vieira I.	Alves P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Lucas Gabriel 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Lucas Gabriel ↓, Chriso ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Madsen N. ⚽,
67', Franca F. ↓, Benchi D. ↑,
67', Fabio China ↓, Freitas A. ↑,
67', Guedes A. ↓, Danilovic V. ↑,
70', Ibrahima 🟨,
71', Capitao D. ↓, Iheanacho S. ↑,
74', Ibrahima ↓, Carlos Daniel ↑,
78', Goncalves V. ↓, Matos R. ↑,
82', Patrick ↓, Tavares M. ↑,
85', Chriso 🟥,
90+1', Rochez B. 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 0, Madsen N. ⚽, Carlos Daniel (A),

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Marítimo is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Mafra is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Mafra could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Marítimo is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Marítimo won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:8 (average 1.8:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Marítimo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:2 (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Marítimo
Portuguese Liga 2
13.04.25	Benfica B - Marítimo	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Marítimo - Leixões	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Penafiel - Marítimo	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Marítimo - Felgueiras	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Marítimo - Académico de Viseu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WTWTT
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
14.04.25	Mafra - Penafiel	4:2 ✺
06.04.25	Académico de Viseu - Mafra	3:1 ✺
31.03.25	Mafra - Felgueiras	1:0 ✺
16.03.25	Leiria - Mafra	3:1 ✺
09.03.25	Mafra - Porto B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
08.12.24	Mafra - Marítimo	2:3
25.02.24	Mafra - Marítimo	0:0
30.09.23	Marítimo - Mafra	1:2
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Mafra - Marítimo	4:2 ET
Portuguese League Cup
28.07.18	Marítimo - Mafra	3:0

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