Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 33

Date: 2 May 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Francis Turcan (Martigues)

Referee: Petit A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA 9, beIN Sports MENA French 2
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Martigues		Paris FC

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.9	1.7	Watch
	5	3.6	1.68
	4.4	3.7	1.75
	4.8	3.84	1.72
	4.52	3.93	1.7	Watch
	4.6	3.7	1.73
	4.63	4.01	1.75	Watch
	4.4	3.7	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.61 ↓ (6.31)	3.8 ↓ (4.59)	1.72 ↑ (1.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Martigues
20.5%

Draw
24.8%

Paris FC
54.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.9%

20.4%

64.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.3%

19.6%

67.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Martigues has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Martigues's performance.

Paris FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paris FC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Martigues than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Martigues that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paris FC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	20%	65%

Martigues - Paris FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Martigues will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). Paris FC will win (votes: 12 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paris FC: 44.9% – 88.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Martigues (votes: 2 - 50%). Paris FC (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Etile Y. (G) 39. Saintini N. 3. Solvet S. 5. Falette S. 18. Amraoui A. 10. Tlili K. 26. Belloumou S. (C) 7. Orinel O. 23. Siby M. 12. Robin M. 29. Mendy O.	16. Nkambadio O. (G) 17. Camara A. 31. Chergui S. 5. Mbow M. 28. De Smet T. 4. Marchetti V. 8. Doucet L. 7. Gory A. (C) 29. Hamel P. 13. Cafaro M. 11. Krasso J.
Substitutes
50. Anzimati-Aboudou A. (G) 41. Bamba M. 27. Ipiele A. 6. Kembolo F. 9. Montiel R. 17. Shamal S. 8. Zouaoui I.	12. Dicko N. 18. Gueye L. 19. Kante M. 10. Kebbal I. 2. Ollila T. 1. Riou R. (G) 39. Tourraine M.
Coaches
Malek H.	Gilli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Cafaro M. ↓, Kebbal I. ↑,
34', Saintini N. 🟨,
38', De Smet T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 0 - 1, Hamel P. ⚽,
58', Doucet L. ↓, Kante M. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Orinel O. ⚽, Mendy O. (A),
72', Orinel O. ↓, Ipiele A. ↑,
72', Siby M. ↓, Montiel R. ↑,
81', Mendy O. ↓, Shamal S. ↑,
82', Krasso J. ↓, Dicko N. ↑,
90', Tlili K. ↓, Kembolo F. ↑,
90', Belloumou S. ↓, Zouaoui I. ↑,
90+3', Mbow M. 🟨,
90+3', Solvet S. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Ligue 2 (Relegation) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).

Recent performances by Martigues have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paris FC is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Paris FC is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Martigues: Djaha A. (Injury) Marillat Y. (Injury) Zouaoui I. (Injury)

There will not play in Paris FC: Alakouch S. (Injury) Gueye L. (Knee Injury) Kebbal I. (Injury) Kolodziejczak T. (Suspended) Lopez J. (Red Card) Lopez M. (Yellow Cards) Pembele A. (Inactive) Sissoko O. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Martigues won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Martigues
French Ligue 2
25.04.25	Guingamp - Martigues	2:1 ✺
18.04.25	Caen - Martigues	0:3 ✺
11.04.25	Martigues - Metz	1:4 ✺
04.04.25	Rodez - Martigues	1:0 ✺
28.03.25	Martigues - Ajaccio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 LWLLW
- Paris FC
French Ligue 2
26.04.25	Rodez - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Paris FC - Bastia	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Grenoble - Paris FC	1:2 ✺
04.04.25	Paris FC - Clermont	2:0 ✺
31.03.25	Paris FC - Caen	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
03.01.25	Paris FC - Martigues	1:2

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