Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio El Encanto (Mazatlán)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, FOX One, FOX Sports, Tubi TV
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Mazatlan		Cruz Azul

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.33	1.53	Watch
	4.75	4.33	1.6
	4.95	4.15	1.58	Watch
	4.96	4.55	1.63
	4.74	4.49	1.62	Watch
	4.4	3.9	1.57
	4.8	4.25	1.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.84 ↓ (6.5)	4.29 ↓ (4.4)	1.59 ↑ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mazatlan
19.3%

Draw
21.8%

Cruz Azul
58.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.2%

20.9%

64.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.8%

20.4%

66.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mazatlan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mazatlan's performance.

Cruz Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cruz Azul might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mazatlan than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mazatlan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cruz Azul could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Mazatlan - Cruz Azul Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruz Azul (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Cruz Azul will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rodriguez R. (G) 5. Almada F. (C) 16. Esquivel J. 19. Merolla L. 21. Santos S. 11. Barcenas Y. 25. Godinez S. 14. Zaleta M. 7. Dudu 17. Ovalle J. 15. Rubio B.	23. Mier K. (G) 6. Lira E. (C) 17. Garcia A. 33. Piovi G. 22. Rodarte J. 8. Palavecino A. 16. Marquez J. 3. Campos O. 10. Montano A. 19. Rodriguez C. 21. Fernandez G.
Substitutes
13. Alcaraz Diaz V. A. (G) 9. Arce B. 90. Fabio Gomes 3. Franco R. 28. Hernandez D. 22. Herrera A. 20. Lainez M. 26. Leyva A. 193. Lopez G. 31. Saavedra Nevarez A. A.	170. Castro A. 209. Diaz J. 11. Ebere C. 1. Gudino A. (G) 7. Ibanez N. 194. Morales A. 20. Paradela J. 18. Romero L. 197. Silva I. 239. Valdez D.
Coaches
Bueno S.	Larcamon N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 1 - 0, Ovalle J. ⚽,
51', Montano A. ↓, Paradela J. ↑,
59', Paradela J. 🟨,
61', Marquez J. ↓, Ibanez N. ↑,
62', Rodarte J. ↓, Ebere C. ↑,
68', Rubio B. 🟨,
70', Palavecino A. 🟨,
75', Santos S. 🟨,
76', Dudu ↓, Arce B. ↑,
76', Ovalle J. ↓, Lainez M. ↑,
82', Rubio B. ↓, Fabio Gomes ↑,
82', Zaleta M. ↓, Lopez G. ↑,
82', Merolla L. ↓, Leyva A. ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Fernandez G. ⚽, Paradela J. (A),
89', Campos O. ↓, Morales A. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mazatlan won 2.

Mazatlan has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cruz Azul is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mazatlan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cruz Azul is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Cruz Azul: Ditta W. (Yellow Cards) Orozco J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Mazatlan: Diaz J. (Injury) Moreno Villegas O. F. (Injury) Sierra J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Cruz Azul: Rotondi C. (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Mazatlan won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:17. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mazatlan won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:9. (average 1.8:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	19:18	1	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mazatlan FC
Mexican Liga MX
15.03.26	Club América - Mazatlan	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Mazatlan - Club León	4:2 ✺
03.03.26	Atlético San Luis - Mazatlan	4:1 ✺
27.02.26	Mazatlan - Pachuca	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Tijuana - Mazatlan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.6 LWLWT
- Cruz Azul FC
CONCACAF Champions Cup
17.03.26	Cruz Azul - Monterrey	1:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
14.03.26	UNAM - Cruz Azul	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
10.03.26	Monterrey - Cruz Azul	2:3 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
07.03.26	Cruz Azul - Atlético San Luis	3:0 ✺
03.03.26	Santos Laguna - Cruz Azul	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
12.07.25	Cruz Azul - Mazatlan	0:0
Club Friendly
06.07.25	Mazatlan - Cruz Azul	2:1
Mexican Liga MX
28.02.25	Mazatlan - Cruz Azul	1:1
CONCACAF League Cup
13.08.24	Cruz Azul - Mazatlan	2:3 penalties
Mexican Liga MX
06.07.24	Cruz Azul - Mazatlan	1:0
27.01.24	Cruz Azul - Mazatlan	2:1
15.09.23	Mazatlan - Cruz Azul	2:2

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