Match Info

Championship - Round 8

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Riverside Stadium (Middlesbrough)

Referee: Webb D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Middlesbrough		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.4	4.1	Watch
	1.94	3.54	3.93	Watch
	1.9	3.67	4.26
	3.54	1.86	4.11	Watch
	1.9	3.5	4.16	Watch
	1.9	3.6	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (1.95)	3.26 ↓ (3.55)	4.08 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Middlesbrough
45.5%

Draw
30.3%

Stoke City
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

26.8%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.9%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Middlesbrough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.2%	19%	4.8%

Middlesbrough - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Middlesbrough will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). Stoke will win (votes: 1 - 4.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Middlesbrough: 58% – 94.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 4 - 50%). Stoke (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Middlesbrough (1.90) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Stoke (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Stoke (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Brynn S. (G) 12. Ayling L. (C) 25. Edmundson G. 5. Jones A. 3. Targett M. 18. Morris A. 16. Browne A. 7. Hackney H. 19. Nypan S. 13. Strelec D. 9. Conway T.	1. Johansson V. (G) 18. Lawal B. 26. Phillips A. 16. Wilmot B. (C) 17. Bocat E. 4. Pearson B. 12. Seko T. 7. Thomas S. 10. Bae J. 29. Cisse L. 11. Bozenik R.
Substitutes
24. Bangura A. 10. Burgzorg D. 6. Fry D. 27. Hansen S. 42. Kante A. 33. McLaughlin J. (G) 20. Sene M. K. 22. Silvera S. 11. Whittaker M.	13. Bonham J. (G) 3. Cresswell A. 14. Donley J. 42. Manhoef M. 9. Mubama D. 15. N'Zonzi S. 19. Rigo T. 40. Talovierov M. 22. Tchamadeu J.
Coaches
Edwards R.	Robins M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Edmundson G. ↓, Silvera S. ↑,
13', Silvera S. 🟨,
32', Conway T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cisse L. ↓, Manhoef M. ↑,
46', Pearson B. ↓, Rigo T. ↑,
64', Morris A. ↓, Hansen S. ↑,
64', Strelec D. ↓, Sene M. K. ↑,
73', Bozenik R. ↓, Mubama D. ↑,
77', Lawal B. ↓, Tchamadeu J. ↑,
81', Conway T. ↓, Kante A. ↑,
81', Nypan S. ↓, Fry D. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 2.

Middlesbrough is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Stoke is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Stoke has had a series of home games.

In this match, Middlesbrough is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Dieng S. (Injury) Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury) McGree R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Stoke: Gallagher S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Fry D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Stoke: Baker L. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:19. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Middlesbrough won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
27.09.25	Southampton - Middlesbrough	1:1 ✺
19.09.25	Middlesbrough - West Bromwich Albion	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Preston North End - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Middlesbrough - Sheffield United	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Norwich City - Middlesbrough	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 TWTWW
- Stoke City
English League Championship
27.09.25	Stoke City - Norwich City	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Queens Park Rangers - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Stoke City - Birmingham City	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Stoke City - West Bromwich Albion	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Stoke City - Bradford City	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
25.02.25	Stoke City - Middlesbrough	1:3
28.09.24	Middlesbrough - Stoke City	2:0
English League Cup
27.08.24	Middlesbrough - Stoke City	0:5
English League Championship
02.03.24	Stoke City - Middlesbrough	2:0
28.10.23	Middlesbrough - Stoke City	0:2
14.03.23	Middlesbrough - Stoke City	1:1
17.08.22	Stoke City - Middlesbrough	2:2

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