Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 5

Date: 14 September 2024, Saturday

Location: The Den (London)

Referee: Smith J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
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Canada	DAZN Canada
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free, myCANAL
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Match 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	Sporty TV
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV5
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra, V Sport Xtra
Turkey	Digiturk, Exxen
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 2, NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports+, Sky Ultra
Usa	CBS, Paramount+
World	Disney+


	Millwall		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.3	2.8	Watch
	2.55	3.25	2.75
	2.51	3.35	2.81	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.88
	2.6	3.27	2.78	Watch
	2.62	3.25	2.8
	2.6	3.36	2.68	Watch
	2.51	3.35	2.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↓ (2.67)	3.3 ↓ (3.36)	2.79 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millwall
37%

Draw
28.8%

Luton Town
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

28.3%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

29%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millwall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Millwall - Luton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Millwall will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Luton will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Millwall: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jensen L. (G) 18. Leonard R. 5. Cooper J. (C) 6. Tanganga J. 15. Bryan J. 23. Saville G. 24. De Norre C. 25. Esse R. 39. Honeyman G. 19. Watmore D. 21. Coburn J.	24. Kaminski T. (G) 16. Burke R. 6. McGuinness M. 15. Mengi T. 45. Doughty A. 13. Nakamba M. 20. Walsh L. 3. Bell A. (C) 18. Clark J. 14. Chong T. 11. Adebayo E.
Substitutes
11. Azeez F. 22. Emakhu A. 4. Hutchinson S. 16. Kelly D. 17. Langstaff M. 2. McNamara D. 13. Roberts L. (G) 33. Scanlon C. 14. Wintle R.	5. Andersen M. 29. Holmes T. 9. Morris C. 7. Moses V. 17. Mpanzu P. 37. Nelson Z. 1. Shea J. (G) 25. Taylor J. 10. Woodrow C.
Coaches
Harris N.	Edwards R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Mengi T. ⚽, Walsh L. (A),
22', De Norre C. 🟨,
34', Coburn J. ↓, Langstaff M. ↑,
41', Mengi T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cooper J. ↓, Hutchinson S. ↑,
67', Honeyman G. ↓, Azeez F. ↑,
67', Adebayo E. ↓, Morris C. ↑,
69', Nakamba M. ↓, Mpanzu P. ↑,
79', Bryan J. ↓, Emakhu A. ↑,
79', Esse R. ↓, Scanlon C. ↑,
85', Kaminski T. 🟨,
89', Doughty A. 🟨,
90+3', Walsh L. ↓, Holmes T. ↑,
90+5', Hutchinson S. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Millwall won 0.

Recent matches Millwall is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Luton has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Millwall could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Millwall: Mitchell B. (Hip Injury)

There will not play in Luton: Brown J. (Knee Injury) Hashioka D. (Leg Injury) Lockyer T. (Heart Problems)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Millwall won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 17-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Millwall won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millwall
English League Championship
31.08.24	Millwall - Sheffield Wednesday	3:0 ✺
English League Cup
27.08.24	Millwall - Leyton Orient	0:1 ✺
English League Championship
24.08.24	Hull City - Millwall	0:0 ✺
17.08.24	Bristol City - Millwall	4:3 ✺
English League Cup
13.08.24	Portsmouth - Millwall	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLTLW
- Luton Town
English League Championship
30.08.24	Luton Town - Queens Park Rangers	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
27.08.24	Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town	2:1 penalties ✺
English League Championship
24.08.24	Preston North End - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
17.08.24	Portsmouth - Luton Town	0:0 ✺
12.08.24	Luton Town - Burnley	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
07.04.23	Millwall - Luton Town	0:0
28.02.23	Luton Town - Millwall	2:2
02.04.22	Luton Town - Millwall	2:2
16.10.21	Millwall - Luton Town	0:2
23.02.21	Luton Town - Millwall	1:1
20.10.20	Millwall - Luton Town	2:0
01.01.20	Millwall - Luton Town	3:1

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