Match Info

Championship - Round 33

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: The Den (London)

Referee: Martin S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Millwall		Portsmouth

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.4	4.33	Watch
	1.86	3.55	4.27	Watch
	1.88	3.72	4.32
	1.83	3.66	4.27	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4
	1.84	3.45	4.28	Watch
	1.83	3.75	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.72)	3.55 ↓ (3.73)	4.24 ↓ (4.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millwall
51.2%

Draw
26.6%

Portsmouth
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

25.4%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

25.1%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millwall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	5.3%	5.3%

Millwall - Portsmouth Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Millwall will win (17 of 19 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.67% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Millwall will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Patterson A. (G) 4. Crama T. 6. Taylor C. 5. Cooper J. (C) 14. Doughty A. 24. De Norre C. 8. Mitchell B. 11. Azeez F. 10. Neghli C. 22. Watson T. 9. Ivanovic M.	1. Schmid N. (G) 24. Devlin T. 5. Poole R. 3. Ogilvie C. 22. Swanson Z. 7. Pack M. (C) 38. Adams E. 47. Caballero G. 8. Swift J. 27. Alli M. 9. Bishop C.
Substitutes
7. Ballo T. 31. Bangura-Williams R. 67. Bannan B. 15. Crocombe M. (G) 25. Cundle L. 17. Langstaff M. 18. Leonard R. 49. Mazou-Sacko D. 3. Sturge Z.	29. Blair H. 17. Bowat I. 40. Brown J. 26. Bursik J. (G) 55. Dia M. 16. Le Roux L. 10. Segecic A. 28. Swann R. 2. Williams J.
Coaches
Neil A.	Mousinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Alli M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', 0 - 1, Caballero G. ⚽,
55', 0 - 2, Swift J. ⚽, Alli M. (A),
60', Swift J. 🟨,
60', Watson T. ↓, Langstaff M. ↑,
64', 1 - 2, De Norre C. ⚽, Langstaff M. (A),
67', 1 - 3, Pack M. ⚽,
70', Swift J. ↓, Segecic A. ↑,
75', Crama T. 🟨,
80', Crama T. ↓, Leonard R. ↑,
80', Doughty A. ↓, Sturge Z. ↑,
81', Azeez F. ↓, Ballo T. ↑,
81', De Norre C. ↓, Bannan B. ↑,
85', Caballero G. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
90+2', Alli M. ↓, Bowat I. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 20).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Millwall won 4.

Millwall is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Portsmouth's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Millwall may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Millwall is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Millwall: Bryan J. (Injury) Jensen L. (Muscle Injury) Kelly D. (Injury) Luongo M. (Knee Injury) Smallbone W. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Portsmouth: Alese A. (Muscle Injury) Anderson K. (Hamstring Injury) Bianchini F. (Knee Injury) Blair H. (Hip Injury) Chaplin C. (Groin Injury) Dozzell A. (Ankle Injury) Knight J. (Back Injury) Kosznovszky M. (Knee Injury) Matthews H. (Ankle Injury) Murphy J. (Foot Injury) Shaughnessy C. (Thigh Injury) Umeh F. (Hamstring Injury) Waddingham T. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Millwall won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Millwall won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Millwall: 5.26% Portsmouth: 0.98%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	16:15	1	14
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	9:10	-1	8

Last Results with these Odds

Portsmouth - the odds 4.81 are the expected chance of winning is 19.66%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millwall
English League Championship
14.02.26	Sheffield Wednesday - Millwall	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Wrexham - Millwall	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Millwall - Sheffield United	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Millwall - Charlton Athletic	4:0 ✺
20.01.26	Coventry City - Millwall	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWTWL
- Portsmouth FC
English League Championship
17.02.26	Charlton Athletic - Portsmouth	1:3 ✺
14.02.26	Portsmouth - Sheffield United	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	Preston North End - Portsmouth	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Portsmouth - West Bromwich Albion	3:0 ✺
25.01.26	Portsmouth - Southampton	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
22.11.25	Portsmouth - Millwall	3:1
05.04.25	Millwall - Portsmouth	2:1
28.01.25	Portsmouth - Millwall	0:1
English League Cup
13.08.24	Portsmouth - Millwall	0:1
10.08.21	Millwall - Portsmouth	2:1
English League Championship
10.04.12	Portsmouth - Millwall	0:1

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