Match Info

League Two - Round 29

Date: 27 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes)

Referee: Hicks C. (Eng)


	Milton Keynes Dons		Bristol Rovers

	1	X	2
	1.56	3.9	5.5
	1.61	3.8	5.25
	1.55	4.15	5.4
	1.58	4.08	5.81
	1.6	3.88	5.32	Watch
	1.57	3.75	5
	1.58	3.88	5.47	Watch
	1.55	4	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.72)	3.93 ↑ (3.45)	5.44 ↑ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
59.2%

Draw
23.7%

Bristol Rovers
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

26.6%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

22.1%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Milton Keynes Dons's performance.

Bristol Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-14.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Milton Keynes Dons that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bristol Rovers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Milton Keynes Dons - Bristol Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - MK Dons (2.01) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Bristol Rovers (4.15) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Bristol Rovers (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. MacGillivray C. (G) 32. Sanders J. 25. Nelson C. 15. Offord L. 28. Matete J. 16. Nemane A. 26. Wiles B. 8. Gilbey A. (C) 22. Mellish J. 10. Collins A. 13. Paterson C.	13. Young B. (G) 17. Balmer K. 4. Moore T. 26. Harbottle R. 2. Senior J. 15. De Havilland R. 6. Mola C. 3. Sparkes J. 7. Forde S. 29. Cavegn F. 19. Harrison E. (C)
Substitutes
7. Crowley D. 21. Ekpiteta M. 9. Hogan S. 2. Jones G. 6. Kelly L. 24. Lemonheigh-Evans C. 27. Trueman C. (G)	70. Akhamrich Y. 22. Conteh K. 8. Hutchinson I. 39. Morton C. 33. Rijks M. 1. Southwood L. (G) 11. Thomas L.
Coaches
Warne P.	Evans S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', Paterson C. 🟨,
28', Harbottle R. 🟨,
40', Offord L. 🟨,
45+7', 1 - 0, Paterson C. ⚽, Collins A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Matete J. ↓, Kelly L. ↑,
63', Harrison E. ↓, Rijks M. ↑,
68', Senior J. ↓, Akhamrich Y. ↑,
76', Nemane A. ↓, Jones G. ↑,
77', Mola C. ↓, Conteh K. ↑,
83', Paterson C. ↓, Hogan S. ↑,
84', Wiles B. ↓, Lemonheigh-Evans C. ↑,
89', Conteh K. 🟨,
90', Sparkes J. 🟨,
90', Kelly L. 🟨,
90+4', Collins A. ↓, Ekpiteta M. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One and 22).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 3.

In recent matches, MK Dons has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bristol Rovers's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

MK Dons may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, MK Dons is considered a favorite.

There will not play in MK Dons: Collar W. (Inactive) Mendez-Laing N. (Inactive) Thompson N. (Inactive) Tomlinson J. (Inactive) Wilson K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bristol Rovers: McEachran J. (Inactive) Morton C. (Inactive) Omochere P. (Injury) Southam-Hales M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in MK Dons: Hepburn-Murphy R. (Inactive) Maguire L. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1.6:1).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Bristol Rovers: 8.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	15:17	-2	15

Last Results with these Odds

Milton Keynes Dons - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 53.42%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Bristol Rovers - the odds 4.58 are the expected chance of winning is 20.03%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English League Two
24.01.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Shrewsbury Town	5:1 ✺
17.01.26	Accrington Stanley - Milton Keynes Dons	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
09.01.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Oxford United	1:2 penalties ✺
English League Two
04.01.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Chesterfield	2:2 ✺
01.01.26	Colchester United - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLTL
- Bristol Rovers
English League Two
24.01.26	Salford City - Bristol Rovers	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Bristol Rovers - Colchester United	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
13.01.26	Bristol Rovers - Plymouth Argyle	3:4 ✺
English League Two
01.01.26	Shrewsbury Town - Bristol Rovers	0:3 ✺
29.12.25	Bristol Rovers - Barnet	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
11.10.25	Bristol Rovers - Milton Keynes Dons	0:4
English League One
04.02.23	Bristol Rovers - Milton Keynes Dons	0:2
English EFL Trophy
13.12.22	Bristol Rovers - Milton Keynes Dons	4:1
English League One
11.10.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Bristol Rovers	0:1
20.04.21	Bristol Rovers - Milton Keynes Dons	0:2
26.12.20	Milton Keynes Dons - Bristol Rovers	2:0
01.01.20	Milton Keynes Dons - Bristol Rovers	3:0

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