Match Info

League Two - Round 37

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: County Ground (Swindon)

Referee: O'Connor J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Paramount+


	Swindon Town		Milton Keynes Dons

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.25	2.2	Watch
	2.98	3.35	2.28
	3.05	3.45	2.35
	2.98	3.41	2.27	Watch
	3	3.2	2.25
	3.12	3.26	2.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↑ (2.6)	3.32 ↓ (3.33)	2.27 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swindon Town
30.7%

Draw
28.1%

Milton Keynes Dons
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

27.6%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

27.5%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Swindon Town - Milton Keynes Dons Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ripley C. (G) 5. Wright W. 22. Knight-Lebel J. 17. Tafazolli R. 26. Batty J. 8. Clarke O. (C) 7. Nichols T. 18. Kilkenny G. 44. Oldaker D. 23. Drinan A. 30. Hoilett J.	1. MacGillivray C. (G) 21. Ekpiteta M. 32. Sanders J. 15. Offord L. 2. Jones G. 6. Kelly L. 7. Crowley D. 22. Mellish J. 26. Wiles B. 8. Gilbey A. (C) 10. Collins A.
Substitutes
31. Bodin B. 25. Borland A. 24. Holman F. 34. Kirkman B. 3. Mabete F. 28. Palmer O. 12. Ward L. (G)	29. Hepburn-Murphy R. 9. Hogan S. 24. Lemonheigh-Evans C. 25. Nelson C. 16. Nemane A. 14. Tomlinson J. 27. Trueman C. (G)
Coaches
Holloway I.	Warne P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', Wright W. 🟨,
36', 0 - 1, Gilbey A. ⚽, Collins A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', Crowley D. 🟨,
49', Hoilett J. 🟨,
56', 1 - 1, Clarke O. ⚽, Drinan A. (A),
60', Crowley D. ↓, Hogan S. ↑,
63', Nichols T. ↓, Bodin B. ↑,
63', Hoilett J. ↓, Holman F. ↑,
68', Tafazolli R. ↓, Palmer O. ↑,
71', Jones G. ↓, Lemonheigh-Evans C. ↑,
71', Kelly L. ↓, Nelson C. ↑,
78', Clarke O. ↓, Mabete F. ↑,
79', 1 - 2, Ekpiteta M. ⚽, Hogan S. (A),
88', Collins A. ↓, Hepburn-Murphy R. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 1.

Recent performances by Swindon have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

MK Dons is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

MK Dons may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

MK Dons might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D. (Inactive) Glatzel P. (Inactive) Minturn H. (Groin Injury) Smith H. (Knee Injury) Tafazolli R. (Injury) Wilson-Brown T. (Inactive)

There will not play in MK Dons: Collar W. (Inactive) Mendez-Laing N. (Inactive) Nelson C. (Inactive) Paterson C. (Inactive) Wilson K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Swindon: Ball J. (Inactive) Olakigbe M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in MK Dons: Hepburn-Murphy R. (Inactive) Maguire L. (Inactive) Matete J. (Inactive)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:35. (average 1.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Swindon won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 0.8:1.6).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Swindon: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Swindon	10	3	2	5	9:14	-5	11

Last Results with these Odds

Swindon Town - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.39%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Milton Keynes Dons - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Town
English League Two
07.03.26	Crawley Town - Swindon Town	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Swindon Town - Bristol Rovers	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra	1:2 ✺
17.02.26	Barnet - Swindon Town	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Shrewsbury Town - Swindon Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TTLWL
- Milton Keynes Dons
English League Two
10.03.26	Gillingham - Milton Keynes Dons	1:5 ✺
07.03.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Harrogate Town	4:1 ✺
28.02.26	Cambridge United - Milton Keynes Dons	1:1 ✺
23.02.26	Walsall - Milton Keynes Dons	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Crawley Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
26.12.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	1:0
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	0:4
English League Two
03.05.25	Swindon Town - Milton Keynes Dons	0:0
09.11.24	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	3:1
17.02.24	Swindon Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:2
28.10.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	3:2
English League One
24.04.21	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	5:0

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