Match Info

Paulista - Round 1

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, HBO Max, PlayPlus, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Mirassol		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.25	2.63	Watch
	2.52	3.2	2.68
	2.62	3.26	2.67	Watch
	2.5	3	2.6
	2.49	3.08	2.61
	2.6	3.4	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (2.58)	3.2 ↓ (3.47)	2.64 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
36.1%

Draw
28.9%

São Paulo
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

26.9%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

26.4%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Mirassol - São Paulo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Mirassol (1.77) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 20. Daniel Borges 34. Joao Victor 4. Luiz Otavio 6. Reinaldo (C) 25. Neto Moura 21. Jose Aldo 7. Shaylon 26. Lucas Mugni 77. Alesson 99. Andre Luis	23. Rafael (C) 32. Ferraresi N. 28. Franco A. 35. Sabino 21. Soares C. 16. Bobadilla D. 8. Marcos Antonio 25. Alisson 56. Bosshardt N. 10. Luciano 14. Tapia G.
Substitutes
23. Alex Muralha (G) 96. Carlos Eduardo 10. Chico Kim 8. Denilson Alves 33. Eduardo 16. Felipe Jonatan 27. Galeano A. 14. Igor Carius 5. Lara Y. 9. Nathan Fogaca 78. Renato Marques 3. Willian Machado	31. Carlos Coronel (G) 94. Danielzinho 30. Felipe Negrucci 11. Ferreira 38. Hugo Leonardo 7. Lucas Moura 45. Lucca Marques 42. Maik 29. Pablo Maia 5. Robert Arboleda 2. Toloi R. 18. Wendell
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Crespo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Lucas Mugni ⚽,
20', 2 - 0, Franco A. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Alisson ↓, Ferreira ↑,
46', Bosshardt N. ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
46', Alesson ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
48', Neto Moura 🟨,
62', Lucas Mugni ↓, Galeano A. ↑,
62', Neto Moura ↓, Lara Y. ↑,
64', Tapia G. ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
64', Soares C. ↓, Maik ↑,
70', Andre Luis ↓, Renato Marques ↑,
73', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
78', Shaylon ↓, Eduardo ↑,
82', Maik 🟥,
85', Luciano ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
89', 3 - 0, Jose Aldo ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Diaz E. (Hip Injury) Dinenno J. (Knee Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luan Silva (Muscle Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Oscar (Heart Problems) Rodriguinho (Knee Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Wendell (Heel Injury)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Igor Carius (Injury) Reinaldo (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:25. (average 1.2:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Mirassol won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Mirassol - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 36.19%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

São Paulo - the odds 2.53 are the expected chance of winning is 36.9%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
06.12.25	Mirassol - Flamengo	3:3 ✺
02.12.25	Vasco da Gama - Mirassol	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Vitória Salvador - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
24.11.25	Mirassol - Ceará	3:0 ✺
19.11.25	Santos - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TWLWT
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Vitória Salvador - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
03.12.25	São Paulo - Internacional RS	3:0 ✺
27.11.25	Fluminense - São Paulo	6:0 ✺
23.11.25	São Paulo - Juventude	2:1 ✺
20.11.25	Corinthians - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.10.25	Mirassol - São Paulo	3:0
24.05.25	São Paulo - Mirassol	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
05.02.25	São Paulo - Mirassol	4:1
23.01.24	Mirassol - São Paulo	1:1
13.03.22	Mirassol - São Paulo	0:3
16.05.21	São Paulo - Mirassol	4:0
09.05.21	Mirassol - São Paulo	1:1

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